Russia could threaten African gas warns expert

As investors pursue Africa’s dizzying wealth of natural resources, the scramble for African gas has hit a new intensity.

At the centre of attention where energy is concerned, weathering the storms of international pressure, is Nigeria and its six trillion cubic metres of natural gas – the biggest reserves in Africa.

Russia could threaten Europe through a major African gas pipeline if the project were to go ahead, an expert has warned.

The long-mothballed Trans-Saharan gas pipeline (TSGP) which is proposed to connect Algeria to Nigeria’s abundant reserves has received new impetus following a meeting in February.

While the nascent project could provide Europe with much-needed gas stimulus, Moscow’s new-found influence in the Sahel casts a long shadow.

Intissar Fakir, senior fellow and director of the North Africa and Sahel program at the Middle East Institute said: “We don’t know exactly what the relationship between Russia and the EU is going to look like in 10 years after the pipeline is built. It might be very different. We don’t know what the question of Russian presence in the Sahel would look like in 10 years.”

“But if we are thinking all of these factors remain exactly as they are today, then yes, this could potentially become a threat, something that Russia could target to weaken Europe.”

First proposed in the 1970s, the seductive prospect of the TSGP carrying 30bn cubic metres of African gas per year to Mediterranean shores has long captured the imagination of Algeria.

However, after a feasibility study in 2006 concluded the project to be technically and economically possible, it was shelved due to impassable security issues.

Jihadi and militia groups are rife in the Sahel, with many governments unable to control rural areas.

“This has been the question plugging this plan from day one. This has been one of the biggest hesitations about it,” said Fakir.

“There would have to be a very active deployment of military forces and military personnel to actually secure something like this. And I don’t know if it’s feasible. I don’t know of other examples of countries that are able to secure something like this.”

The changing sands of the Sahara have been reshaped again since the Ukraine war, with Russia becoming the ascending geo-political backer in the region.

Troops of Moscow’s PMC, the Wagner Group, have lent military support to Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger in recent years, aiding the fight against insurgency groups.

Unfortunately for Europe, this re-alignment comes as they look for cheap alternatives to Russian gas stymied by war.

The continent seems almost surrounded by Kremlin’s influence, which stretches over the pivotal oil and gas deposits of Libya and Algeria.

Fakir said: “The Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the calculations a little bit, particularly on Europe’s side. Because Europe, before the invasion, had access to cheap gas from Russia, it was talking about its own energy transition at that time and it did not necessarily need additional sources of cheap energy.”

“So the whole point of building this pipeline from Nigeria to Europe was sort of becoming not necessary…but I think the Russian invasion of Ukraine gave way to a new approach, where we were like, okay, maybe there is a new rationale or maybe there is sort of renewed need for a pipeline.”

There is, however, an alternative plan which could circumvent Moscow.

More aligned with Europe is Algeria’s bitter rival Morocco, who has launched its own bid for a Nigerian gas pipeline.

Initially announced in 2016, the project has made some major initial steps, such as receiving support from the Chinese steel manufacturer Jingye Group and as a Nigerian minister remarked this week, interest from the US.

Washington may see it a political opportunity to undermine Russia but the reality for the $25bn pipeline, more than double the cost of the TSGP, is that international investment is more critical.

“Morocco so far has been able to secure some investment from the Chinese, they’ve been able to secure some investment from Gulf countries, but it’s still very small in terms of what they actually need,” said Fakir.

“So they need a big player like the EU or the US to invest in this. For the US, maybe politically, the climate right now is such that there is political backing, but I think ultimately it will have to make commercial sense for big US companies to go and invest in it.”

While the undersea pipeline is unlikely to face security issues, the indirect route would make it the world’s longest offshore pipeline and second longest pipeline overall.

With a total of ten states already involved in the project including Mauritania, Senegal, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Sierra Leone, and Ghana, the plan requires the nurturing of a delicate patchwork of relations which one disagreement could jeopardise.

Morocco may well see the risk as one worth taking, as the project is not only a substantive competition against its arch-rival Algeria, but also part of its green transition ambitions.

Fakir said: “Morocco very much considers gas a clean source of energy. And so gas features prominently in Morocco’s energy transition plans. They have a whole plan. Morocco has been trying to figure out if they can manage a way to produce their own gas.”

“So far the indication has not been as positive. They are working on producing some, but the indication that they have huge reserves is not there. And so they need alternative sources of gas, hence the pipeline.”

While the race for Lagos is important, it is perhaps not at the forefront of regional rivalry as some may frame it.

For both parties the challenge is risky and certainly not inoculated from disaster.

“I think it’s oversimplifying it and kind of looking at it through maybe too much of a political or a narrow political lens to say it’s only about competition. There are very real domestic and lucrative reasons why they would want to do this each on their own,” said Fakir.

“The question is, what does the momentum look like? Can they secure the investment in a climate that is very uncertain when it comes to traditional or fossil fuel energy investment?”

Energy Capital Power, APA News, Business Insider