Morocco could break into the top 60 global economies
Morocco could nearly double the size of its economy over the next 15 years and join the world’s 60 largest economies, as reported by APA News on January 7th via the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).
Morocco’s GDP is projected to reach close to $400 billion by 2040, up from an estimated $178 billion today, according to the CEBR report published in late December.
The study forecasts GDP at around $389 billion by the end of the period, placing the country among the top 60 global economies.
The report describes this growth path as ambitious but achievable. It estimates that Morocco’s economy could expand by nearly 76% over the next 15 years, helped by steady growth and a shift away from heavy reliance on agriculture.
Experts believe this progress could strengthen Morocco’s position among emerging economies at a time when global industries are changing, and energy systems are moving toward cleaner sources.
Recent economic data already points in this direction. The report notes that Morocco’s real economic growth was estimated at 3.8% in 2024. Official government forecasts expect growth to rise to about 4.5% by 2026, supported by stronger activity outside farming.
According to the report, Morocco’s economy has become more diverse in recent years. Industries such as automotive manufacturing, aerospace and higher-value services have expanded, helping reduce the country’s exposure to poor harvests and weather-related shocks. This shift has made overall growth more stable and less dependent on rainfall.
The report also highlights possible social benefits if growth continues. GDP per capita is expected to reach around $9,095 by 2040. This increase is linked to the expansion of the middle class and broader wealth creation. If growth leads to steady job creation, living standards could improve for a larger share of the population.
However, the authors warn that progress is not guaranteed. Climate change remains one of the biggest risks facing the country. Rising temperatures and lower rainfall could hurt agriculture, strain water supplies and put pressure on public finances.
To stay on track, the report calls for more investment in climate adaptation and continued reforms to support long-term growth. It says Morocco will need to balance industrial development with social inclusion and environmental protection.
The report concludes that Morocco has strong foundations to reach a new stage of economic development by 2040, provided it can manage climate risks and ensure that growth benefits are shared more widely across society.
APA News, CEBR, Maghrebi.org
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