Dr Majid Rafizadeh: the Sudan crisis approaches a dangerous threshold

Sudan is going through one of the gravest humanitarian crises of the 21st century and it is approaching another dangerous threshold. According to a warning issued by the UN, existing food aid reserves may be fully depleted by the end of March. This crisis is unfolding within the context of the prolonged civil war, the collapse of state institutions and the near-total erosion of structures and mechanisms that protect civilians.

The UN warning is critical because it means that millions of civilians are at imminent risk of starvation in Sudan. The warning does not merely point to a logistical problem or a temporary interruption in assistance; instead, it signals the possible shift of a severe humanitarian emergency into a large-scale famine. Sudan is experiencing a convergence of crises, including armed conflict, mass displacement and economic breakdown. Large portions of the population have been uprooted from their homes, agricultural production has been systematically disrupted, ordinary markets have ceased to function in many regions and supply routes are blocked or militarized.

Humanitarian agencies, which are operating under extraordinary constraints, have already reduced food rations to survival levels. In other words, what remains is no longer a question of adequacy or efficiency but one of existential urgency. The UN warning also reflects the exhaustion of international political attention.

Sudan is experiencing a convergence of crises, including armed conflict, mass displacement and economic breakdown.

If food aid does run out, the consequences will be immediate and catastrophic. First of all, entire communities, including children and women, will face acute malnutrition. Children will most likely succumb to preventable disease, fragile social structures will further collapse and displacement will ratchet up across national borders. As a result, starvation would be the most likely result of international inaction.

Secondly, the humanitarian implications of such an outcome extend far beyond the immediate death toll. Food insecurity at this scale can reshape societies by eroding trust, dissolving communal bonds and producing long-term psychological and physical damage among those who survive.

Third, it would most likely accelerate cycles of violence in Sudan by forcing civilians to compete over scarce resources, while women and girls would become more exposed to exploitation. Such conditions usually give rise to more localized conflicts and further recruitment by armed groups. In addition, a generation that is shaped by hunger would also be a generation deprived of education and stability.

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Modern humanitarian law and the post-Second World War international institutions were constructed on the premise that mass civilian suffering, particularly starvation, should never happen again. So, to allow the preventable starvation of millions of people in Sudan would be to disregard and hollow out those principles entirely.

The crisis is avoidable since it can be viewed as a product of political choices. This means there is insufficient media attention, donor mobilization, diplomacy and action among global powers. Enough food, logistical capacity and humanitarian expertise exists. What remains uncertain is whether the political will to translate these resources into action exists.

As a result, preventing the collapse of food aid in Sudan requires an immediate, coordinated and multifaceted response. Donor states must increase their emergency funding to UN agencies and their operational partners. Current contributions seem to fall far below what is required to maintain supply chains, transport food into conflict zones and support nutritional programs for children and displaced populations.

Nevertheless, financial support alone is not adequate if aid cannot reach those who need it. This means the opening and protection of humanitarian corridors must become a central diplomatic priority. Roads, border crossings and air routes must be demilitarized. This, of course, requires sustained pressure on all armed factions within Sudan. There should also be clear international consequences for obstructing or diverting aid and attacks on humanitarian personnel.

Parallel to this effort, it is vital to focus on renewed diplomatic pressure for a ceasefire. While humanitarian operations can reduce suffering, they cannot be a political resolution. The involvement of key regional and international actors — particularly Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the US — has been a step in the right direction. Ceasefire mechanisms must be verifiable, any violation must carry tangible costs and humanitarian access must be embedded within any agreed political framework.

Preventing the collapse of food aid in Sudan requires an immediate, coordinated and multifaceted response.

Finally, the crisis in Sudan demands renewed global attention and visibility. The erosion of global media attention may have contributed to donor fatigue and political complacency. The problem is that humanitarian emergencies that fade from public attention rapidly lose their capacity to mobilize resources. The suffering of Sudan’s civilian population has been steadily displaced by other global news and crises. Therefore, it is vital to restore Sudan to the center of global attention to sustain the political pressure required to mobilize aid.

Sudan’s civilians did not create this war, nor did they play a role in the violence or the economic collapse that are now threatening their survival. If the international community allows Sudanese people’s food supply to run out, the results would be catastrophic. This outcome should be prevented at all costs. The international community must act before mass starvation becomes another devastating result of this bloody and protracted conflict.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Maghrebi.org. Dr Majid Rafizadeh is a Harvard-educated political scientist, specializing in US foreign policy and the Middle East. You can follow him on X: @Dr_Rafizadeh.

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