Lebanon: Hezbollah shifts from confrontation to dialogue

Hezbollah has shifted its position in Lebanon from open confrontation against the state to “managing” its differences with it. On 10th February, Hezbollah’s Secretary-General, Sheikh Naim Qassem, made a statement that marked a change in tone after months of sharp criticism of Lebanon’s president and government, as reported by Asharq Al-Awsat.

The certainties of Lebanon’s Shiite party are crumbling, making a change of course necessary. Hezbollah’s shift toward the Lebanese government is driven by several factors. First, in terms of timing, there are the unpredictable tensions between Donald Trump’s United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Lebanese party’s historic ally.

On the ground, meanwhile, the war with Israel has not only decapitated the Shiite organization through the killing of its long-time leader Hassan Nasrallah and several senior party figures, but has also forced Hezbollah to work to maintain the consent of its base, which is still reeling from the war and demanding the reconstruction of areas destroyed by Israel, another issue weighing heavily on the party. Moreover, the bombardments have not stopped, and Israel continues to maintain forces in southern Lebanon.

Even when the party had intensified its criticism of the state, on the ground the Lebanese army succeeded in completing the first phase of the government’s plan to impose a state monopoly over weapons. This choice had been repeatedly rejected and criticized by Hezbollah’s leadership, but today it appears to be receiving consideration from the Shiite party.

This opening up and the need to find new allies led the Lebanese armed organization to allow Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to carry out a historic two-day tour of the South on 8th February. The region is a Hezbollah stronghold, where he was warmly welcomed across political divides, especially among Hezbollah supporters. The visit itself would not have been possible without a green light from Hezbollah’s leadership. Qassem even described the tour as “positive,” adding that disputes with President Joseph Aoun were being “managed.”

Ministerial sources close to the presidency commended Hezbollah’s recent shift as “positive” and “realistic,” given that it lacks other options. It therefore appears that Hezbollah has effectively realized that maintaining a critical stance toward the president would be costly both for the party and for its supporters. Former Minister Rashid Derbas told Asharq Al-Awsat: “Hezbollah is realizing that it is now without friends or allies inside Lebanon and beyond, because the balance of power is changing… So Hezbollah is adapting to this reality.”

Asharq Al-Awsat, Maghrebi.org