Hafed al-Ghwell: Africa needs to keep control of its mineral wealth

Africa’s critical mineral wealth is feeding global dreams of a cleaner planetary future, yet the dominant narratives still track familiar patterns. Commentators often focus on how lithium, cobalt, and rare earths from across the continent can accelerate global decarbonization, while far fewer ask how these same resources can lift African economies. The asymmetry betrays a long-standing habit of viewing African underground wealth as external inputs rather than internal engines of the continent’s transformation.

Let us take a step back.

Global excitement around electrification has propelled demand for battery metals to extraordinary heights. Projections suggest that electric vehicles could make up more than 60 percent of new global car sales by 2035, pushing demand for cobalt, nickel, and lithium to record levels. Countries with massive deposits of such minerals inevitably become central to these emergent globe-spanning supply chains. Yet the question Africans now ask with more urgency is whether the continent will continue exporting raw ore while importing expensive finished products that it will struggle to afford.

Moreover, a consistent stream of news about major discoveries is heightening this tension. Reports from Botswana, Uganda, Namibia, and Malawi reinforce the likelihood that Africa hosts more critical mineral wealth than current projections and mapping reflect. Geological under-exploration means only about a tenth of the continent has been adequately surveyed. Given such potential, investors are beginning to respond positively. However, expectations must be grounded in unfiltered clarity about what Africans want from future extraction cycles.

Critical minerals should drive industrialization at home, not only abroad.

For now, debates around critical minerals remain tilted toward the perspectives of external actors desperate to diversify supply chains for future green economies. Western governments, having belatedly registered the implications of their dependence on Asian processing, increasingly court African capitals with promises of partnership. The added pressure to hit net-zero targets is further elevating Africa as the answer to critical mineral bottlenecks. Yet, on a continent with rampant youth unemployment and informal sectors absorbing more than 80 percent of workers, Africans are rightfully unimpressed with being reduced to a mere pit stop in the next industrial revolution.

Centuries of economic history demonstrate irrefutably that exporting unprocessed minerals generates limited to no credible returns. Instead, refining and intermediate manufacturing create far more value and resilience. A single lithium processing plant, for instance, can employ thousands, while raw ore shipments may directly employ only a few hundred. Naturally, policymakers from Rabat to Cape Town increasingly argue for domestic processing, even if early investments require concessional finance or regional shared facilities.

It is all driven by a simple idea: Critical minerals should drive industrialization at home, not only abroad.

Such value-add ambitions align with the demographic realities of a continent that adds nearly 30 million people to its population every year. Manufacturing expands formal employment more effectively than extractives and agriculture alone. Integrated mineral-to-manufacturing corridors could absorb part of Africa’s youth bulge while creating new export capacities that anchor fiscal stability. Take, for instance, an automotive manufacturing zone in East Africa using regionally processed battery inputs. Such infrastructure alone could help shift trade balances and reduce Africa’s $16 billion annual import bill for vehicles.

Regional integration will be crucial here.

Implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area will give governments a platform to coordinate policies on pricing, taxation, and beneficiation. It will replace fragmented approaches that previously weakened Africa’s bargaining power, allowing multinational buyers to negotiate highly exploitative country-by-country concessions. Thus, a unified continental stance would transform negotiating dynamics, especially as global buyers seek stable long-term supply under geopolitical uncertainty.

More importantly, a continental market would also create scale.

Battery components, permanent magnets, and electric motors require midstream industries that may not be viable in a single small economy, but become feasible when targeting a market of 1.4 billion people. Cross-border power pools could supply the renewable energy needed for refining and manufacturing, giving African products a lower carbon footprint than many Asian counterparts reliant on coal-heavy grids. Investors increasingly value this distinction, offering Africa a strategic advantage if electricity constraints are managed.

Challenges remain real, however.

Governance risks, infrastructure deficits, and inconsistent regulatory regimes drive up project costs. Fortunately, these obstacles are not immutable. Ghana’s bauxite reforms, Zambia’s push to revive its copper sector through transparent joint ventures, and Kenya’s efforts to digitize licensing demonstrate that new policy orientations are emerging. Africa should continue insisting on processing minerals domestically, which would contribute greatly toward making its governance frameworks more predictable and investment-friendly.

Another constraint involves global resistance.

Countries with entrenched refining industries might quietly prefer Africa to remain an ore exporter. Incentives in the US and Europe often prioritize domestic processing, inadvertently discouraging investment in African refining unless explicit carve-outs are created. African governments must negotiate for policy space in these frameworks, not simply accept whatever terms are set abroad. A world hungry for minerals cannot afford to ignore Africa’s priorities, particularly as alternative suppliers struggle with environmental limits and community resistance.

Should the continent define success by the extent to which it helps others meet climate targets, or by how mineral wealth improves the lives of Africans?

Energy security is another factor shaping future mineral pathways.

Without reliable power, no refining or manufacturing strategy will succeed. Countries exploring green hydrogen, geothermal resources, and expanded hydropower view minerals as inputs for both industrialization and energy transition. East Africa, rich in geothermal potential, could theoretically power energy-intensive mineral processing with some of the world’s cleanest electrons, enhancing competitiveness.

As Africa emerges into its own, buoyed by projections of nearly $30 trillion in mineral wealth beneath its soils, a question must be asked. Should the continent define success by the extent to which it helps others meet climate targets, or by how mineral wealth improves the lives of Africans?

The two objectives need not conflict, but a hierarchy must be clear. Deals that simply guarantee raw ore supply do little for development, as history has shown repeatedly. Agreements that promote joint ventures, local processing, skills transfer, and technology sharing generate lasting benefits.

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Of course, skeptics will argue that Africa risks overestimating its bargaining power. Yet market realities suggest the opposite. Demand for many critical minerals is steep; substitution remains limited for several key applications, and recycling will not meet short-term needs. A supplier with abundant reserves and a young labor force can influence global markets if it coordinates effectively. It is a situation reminiscent of oil in the 20th century, which showed how producer coordination reshapes global economics, even if the parallels are not perfect.

Momentum is shifting toward a more assertive African posture. A new mineral future is emerging in which Africa is insisting its resources fuel manufacturing growth, reduce unemployment, and facilitate home-grown technological capabilities. If critical minerals are key to decarbonizing the planet, they must first build resilient African economies.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Maghrebi.org. Hafed Al-Ghwell is a senior fellow and executive director of the North Africa Initiative at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. X: @HafedAlGhwell.

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