Houthis halt Red Sea shipping attacks despite Iran war escalation

Yemen’s Houthi movement has not carried out attacks on Red Sea shipping since the start of the war involving Iran, despite expectations the group would join the conflict, The National reported on 17 March.

The group had previously targeted vessels in the waterway following the outbreak of the Gaza war in October 2023, disrupting global trade routes and forcing ships to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope.

The absence of attacks comes more than three weeks into the current conflict, during which other Iranian-aligned groups have launched strikes against Israeli and US targets in the region.

The Houthis have launched missiles and drones beyond Yemen in the past, including attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, demonstrating their capacity to target regional and international interests.

Previous attacks on Red Sea shipping affected a key maritime corridor that carries around 15 per cent of global trade and is vital to energy markets and international supply chains. Disruptions forced vessels onto longer routes, contributing to losses in revenue for Egypt’s Suez Canal.

The reason for the pause remains unclear, though it may reflect a deliberate effort to hold escalation in reserve. The International Crisis Group said in a March update that tensions involving Iran-aligned groups across the region remain closely calibrated despite ongoing hostilities.

Another possible explanation is that the pause reflects understandings with the United States and regional actors, as renewed attacks could risk escalation while US naval forces maintain a strong presence in the region. Samir Ragheb, an Egyptian political analyst, said the Houthis risked undermining these arrangements if they resumed attacks.

Internal pressures may also be a factor, with rival factions in southern Yemen potentially limiting the group’s capacity to expand military operations. The pause could be temporary, with Salma Hassan of the Cairo Institute for Human Rights Studies noting it could reflect efforts to align any escalation with Iran’s broader strategy and timing in the conflict.

The National, The International Crisis Group,  Maghrebi.org