Tunisia: Experts raise the alarm on fragile economy

Experts are raising the alarm on a possible economic crisis in Tunisia, due to the impact of the war against Iran on an already fragile state, as reported by La Presse on April 12th.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is having a significant impact on global petrol and gas prices, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) describing it as the “biggest disturbance in the history of the international oil market”.

While Tunisia is not directly involved in the conflict, the 95% reduction in traffic through the Strait will likely affect the daily lives of its population, leading to price increases.

There are also concerns about the impact on tourism, a key economic sector for Tunisia, due to higher plane ticket prices and inflation that erodes tourists’ spending power.

Reportedly, the Tunisian economy was already fragile, due to weak growth, high unemployment and structural issues.

Additionally, Tunisia’s economy is highly reliant on imports for basic products such as petroleum, but also wheat, textiles and electronics, as well as phosphates and fertiliser, which means it is particularly at risk of inflation due to higher transport prices.

President Kais Saied had taken steps to address Tunisia’s deep-rooted structural issues, including increased investment in industry, services, and agriculture.

Tourism in 2025 reached a record high of 9 million visitors, providing an essential source of income for many Tunisians, and the country’s external debt was on the decline as it finally got its finances under control.

However, the global political and economic context means that Tunisia once again finds itself on the edge of economic crisis.

Economy professor Ridha Gouia notes that to reduce the impact of the current situation, Tunisia needs to focus on achieving its 3.3% growth target in 2026, continue diversifying its income sources, and address its reliance on foreign oil by developing its renewable energy sector.

La Presse and agencies, Maghrebi.org