Iran war hits living conditions in Africa and Middle East, IMF warns

International Monetary Fund economists said the war in Iran could worsen living conditions across Africa and parts of the Middle East, as rising energy and food prices hit import-dependent economies, AFP reported via The New Arab on 17 April.

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are among those already feeling the effects, as higher costs for fuel, fertiliser and basic goods put pressure on households and government budgets.

The disruption is linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies, which has driven up prices worldwide.

While some oil exporters such as Nigeria and Algeria have benefited, other economies reliant on imports are facing widening trade deficits and rising living costs.

The IMF warned that import-dependent and fragile economies face worsening trade balances and limited capacity to absorb further shocks, adding that up to 20 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa could be pushed towards hunger if the crisis continues.

Alex de Waal, an expert on famine and food security, has warned that sharp increases in food prices can worsen poverty, particularly in urban areas, raising the risk of social unrest.

Economists say higher fuel and fertiliser costs are driving these pressures.

“Oil and gas importers are suffering from higher and more volatile prices, while the shortage and rising cost of fertilisers is a critical issue,” said Christopher Cramer, professor of political economy at SOAS University of London.

In Sahel countries, higher fertiliser prices and transport costs are expected to push food prices higher, particularly in rural areas.

The pressure comes as international aid declines, with the IMF warning that reductions are becoming structural. Fragileand low-income countries that rely on aid for healthcare and food support are expected to be hardest hit.

In the Middle East, the IMF reported some of the largest six-month downgrades to growth projections since the global financial crisis, reflecting the scale of the disruption.

Higher global interest rates are also raising borrowing costs across the region, adding to existing economic strain.

Food insecurity remains a key concern in several countries. Food imports account for 45 to 50 percent of total imports in Yemen, Sudan and Somalia, where more than half of the population already faces shortages.

AFP via The New Arab, Stimson Center, Maghrebi.org