Morocco and Algeria’s escalating arms race sparks fears of regional war

Relations between Morocco and Algeria have reached what many analysts consider their most dangerous point in decades, according to the French business news outlet L’Essentiel de l’Éco’s 21st of May report. Recent tension is driven by a string of border provocations and defence budgets that are breaking records across the continent. The most alarming recent incident came in April 2026, when two Algerian Mi-28NE attack helicopters made an aggressive pass over the border into the Moroccan region of Figuig. Before that, in February, Algerian soldiers crossed into Moroccan territory at Ksar Ich, planting border markers and firing warning shots near farmland. Military analysts are increasingly concerned that skirmishes like these, uncoordinated and escalating, could stumble into something far larger.

Between them, the two countries account for roughly 60% of all military spending across Africa. Algeria’s defence budget jumped 11% to $25.4 billion, consuming around 25% of total public expenditure, making it the highest such ratio anywhere in the world outside of Ukraine. Morocco isn’t far behind, with its own defence budget hitting $15.3 billion, a 17.7% rise on the previous year. Algeria has also become the first foreign buyer of Russia’s Su-57E stealth fighter jets, a move that has drawn warnings from Washington over potential CAATSA sanctions. Morocco, for its part, has leaned heavily into Western and Israeli hardware. This includes Apache AH-64E helicopters, HIMARS missile systems, and Israeli electronic warfare technology, as a way of offsetting Algeria’s numerical advantage on the ground.

The roots of all this go back a long way. In 1963, one year after Algeria’s independence from France, both countries went to war over colonial borders. The scars of what is now known as the Sand War left scars never fully healed. Western Sahara has been another long-running issue, with Algeria backing the Polisario Front’s push for independence and Morocco claiming the territory as its own. The most recent inflexion point, though, was the 2020 Abraham Accords, during which Morocco normalised relations with Israel, and in return, Washington recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. Algiers read that as deliberate encirclement. Things got messier still in 2025 when Mali shot down an Algerian drone, and Morocco moved quickly to offer Sahel nations an Atlantic trade corridor, stepping into the gap Algeria left. 

Some observers reckon Tebboune is also playing to a domestic audience as his 2024 re-election was widely questioned, with turnout collapsing to just 23%. For all the posturing, American pressure has kept both sides in quiet, backdoor talks over a revised Western Sahara autonomy framework, though nobody is calling it progress yet.

Maghrebi.org, L’Essentiel de l’Éco.