The hidden battle for power between Morocco and Algeria

The rivalry between Algeria and Morocco represents a clash between two opposing models. According to a Mondafrique report published on 25 May, this dynamic has taken on global importance post-Ukraine, as international powers scramble to secure energy, maritime chokepoints, critical minerals, and regional alliances.

Morocco’s strategy relies on integration into global networks, maritime flows, and Western security. A key indicator is the US-Morocco defence roadmap for 2026–2036, which facilitates Rabat’s inclusion into American military frameworks.

Geographically, Morocco forms the southern bank of the 14-kilometre Strait of Gibraltar chokepoint. This route has become crucial as alternative pathways like the Suez Canal or the Strait of Hormuz face rising regional tensions and disruptions.

Rabat also possesses material assets, holding roughly 70% of the world’s known phosphate reserves, essential for global agriculture and lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) electric vehicle batteries. At Bou Azzer, the firm Managem extracts cobalt, offering Western manufacturers a supply chain distinct from Chinese-dominated networks or high-risk sites in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Rabat maximises its value through major infrastructure nodes like the Tanger Med port, urban developments in Dakhla, and the proposed Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline. This outward projection builds an axis of influence toward West Africa and the Atlantic, compensating for its closed land border with Algeria. However, this high connectivity leaves Morocco vulnerable to external shocks, particularly as it courts Chinese industrial capital for battery plants while also deepening its defence reliance on Washington.

Algeria, on the other hand, operates as a sovereign “reserve power,” deriving influence from its immense territorial size, deep energy reserves, and strict diplomatic non-alignment. Rather than integrating into global networks, Algiers maintains influence through its capacity to simultaneously affect European energy security and Sahelian stability.

As Europe seeks alternatives to Russian hydrocarbons, Algeria’s geographical proximity and direct pipeline infrastructure give it an immediate advantage over transatlantic liquefied natural gas (LNG). This includes the TransMed link to Italy via Tunisia and the Medgaz line to Spain. Algeria holds an estimated 4.5 trillion cubic metres of gas reserves.

This energy leverage faces clear structural constraints. State energy company Sonatrach must navigate a 6% annual surge in domestic consumption alongside an ageing industrial infrastructure. While export volumes rebounded to approximately 49 billion cubic metres in 2025, Algiers faces concrete limits on immediate export availability. To expand its mineral footprint, Algeria is turning to the 3.5-billion-tonne Gara Djebilet iron ore deposit, though it remains cautious about developing sensitive Saharan shale gas due to environmental risks to vital desert aquifers.

In the Sahel, Algeria acts as a regional stabiliser through defensive containment rather than military projection. Sharing a 1,300-kilometre border with Mali, Algiers views Sahelian instability as a direct national security threat. While Algiers historically brokered regional diplomatic solutions, most notably the 2015 Algiers Peace Accord, its model is currently under severe pressure. The withdrawal of French and UN forces, the arrival of Russia’s Africa Corps, and the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States involving Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have significantly narrowed Algeria’s traditional room for manoeuvre.

Mondafrique, Maghrebi.org.