Oil exporter bloc weighs production hike affecting Algeria
A picture taken on January 16, 2018 at In Amenas gas plant, 1,300 kilometres (800 miles) southeast of Algiers, shows workers riding bikes following a ceremony to mark five years since a deadly raid by Al-Qaeda-linked jihadists which left 40 hostages dead. - The assault -- which left 29 attackers dead -- was claimed by one-eyed Algerian jihadist Mokhtar Belmokhtar, a former head of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb. (Photo by RYAD KRAMDI / AFP)
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) might increase its collective oil production targets for July 2026, a decision that could directly boost Algeria’s output, according to government-friendly ObservAlgerie via Reuters, reporting on June 2nd.
The proposed alliance-wide adjustment involves a collective increase of approximately 188,000 barrels per day (bpd). This volume matches the incremental supply pace already established for June. The strategy will be formally debated during a ministerial meeting on June 7, 2026.
According to Reuters, the upcoming review involves seven alliance members: Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman. The plan gradually brings back crude volumes by rolling back voluntary cuts from April 2023.
For Algeria, the exact impact depends on how the new quotas are shared. In June, the collective 188,000 bpd increase meant a modest boost of 6,000 bpd for Algeria, according to the Ministry of Hydrocarbons via AL24 News. The alliance remains highly cautious. Ministers are unwinding the cuts in steps so they can freeze, delay, or reverse the changes if global demand weakens.
The upcoming policy debate takes place against a backdrop of severe geopolitical friction around the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters notes that transit disruptions in this vital maritime chokepoint have already suppressed actual export volumes from several Persian Gulf producers. Consequently, official state quotas no longer match real physical supply on global markets. Alliance data reveals that average OPEC+ production fell from 42.77 million bpd in February to 33.19 million bpd in April, largely driven by these forced export contractions in the Gulf region.
For Algiers, even a marginal quota expansion offers a fiscal advantage, provided global crude prices remain elevated. Crude oil exports remain the cornerstone of Algeria’s foreign currency reserves, alongside natural gas and refined petrochemical products. However, the economic balance remains delicate: if global supply outpaces demand, declining prices could erase the financial gains of the output increase. This vulnerability explains why OPEC+ continues to carefully dose its market return, seeking to defend price floors without losing further market share to non-alliance producers.
ObservAlgerie via Reuters, AL24 News, Maghrebi.org
Want to chase the pulse of North Africa?
Subscribe to receive our FREE weekly PDF magazine
