Cherkaoui Roudani: The price of the Morocco-Algeria rivalry

Can the Maghreb still afford the luxury of this dispute? 

In a world marked by intensifying crises, the Maghreb finds itself at a decisive crossroads. The region can no longer remain locked in inherited rivalries, when the example of the European Union or ASEAN shows that no region that is permanently fragmented can aspire to influence the international balance of power without at least minimal mechanisms for cooperation and interdependence. 

The aim here is not to point fingers, but to acknowledge that Morocco and Algeria have, at different times, prioritised rivalrous stances and logics to the detriment of regional integration. 

The exorbitant cost of discord 

Today, normalisation between Rabat and Algiers would pave the way for a new economic phase across the Maghreb. The cost of the Maghreb’s lack of integration remains considerable: several percentage points of growth each year for the countries concerned. Intra-Maghreb trade accounts for less than 5% of the region’s countries’ foreign trade, depriving them of a regional market of over 100 million people. 

The real question is no longer whether Morocco and Algeria can achieve full reconciliation, but how much longer the Maghreb can afford the strategic cost of rivalry.

Morocco now boasts logistics and port infrastructure that is among the most efficient on the continent. Tangier Med has become one of the leading maritime hubs in the Mediterranean and Africa, whilst the Nador West Med project is set to strengthen coverage of the Mediterranean coastline and Morocco’s role as a logistics hub between Europe, Africa and the Atlantic region. 

For its part, Algeria possesses considerable energy, mining and territorial resources, alongside a robust domestic market. Combined, these mutual capabilities could give rise to a Maghreb geo-economic continuum and reposition the Maghreb as a strategic crossroads on the new trade routes of the 21st century. 

The reopening of land borders would also constitute a significant economic lever. It would help revitalise border regions, reduce logistics costs, foster human and commercial exchanges, and limit the expansion of informal economies. 

A necessarily gradual normalisation

Of course, a political shift towards lasting normalisation cannot be immediate. Such normalisation would require a gradual and pragmatic approach: media détente, sectoral cooperation, energy coordination, the facilitation of people-to-people exchanges, or even joint logistics projects, at the Maghreb and Sahel-Atlantic levels. 

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The revival of dialogue mechanisms on security matters, technical cooperation in the fight against cross-border trafficking, and the facilitation of academic and economic exchanges would also be important steps, and Tunisia, which serves as a hub for regional convergence and mediation, would also have a role to play. 

Ultimately, perhaps the real question is no longer whether Morocco and Algeria can achieve full reconciliation, but how much longer the Maghreb can afford the strategic cost of rivalry. They face a historic choice: to remain prisoners of the inertia of the past or to transform geographical, cultural and strategic synergies into a lever for regional influence.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Maghrebi.org. Cherkaoui Roudani is a university professor specialising in Diplomacy, International Relations, Security, and Crisis Management, and a former Member of the Moroccan Parliament. This article was originally published in Jeune Afrique.

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