The new EU migration Pact and the battle for influence in Libya
Libya flag on map of Libya
On Friday 12 June the new European Pact for Asylum and Migration entered into force. EU is seeking to rebuild its strategic footprint in a country that remains central to Mediterranean security. However, European initiatives are unfolding within an increasingly competitive geopolitical environment, where Russia, Turkey and other international actors.
The latest signs of Europe’s renewed engagement emerged through a series of security and defence initiatives involving key European states. On 11 June, as reported by Libya Observer, Libya and Italy held high-level talks aimed at expanding defence cooperation, with discussions focusing on military training programmes, institutional support and the strengthening of bilateral security ties.
On the same day, the Chief of Staff of the Libyan Army discussed prospects for deeper naval cooperation during a visit by a French naval vessel, highlighting Paris’ intention to maintain a visible military and security relationship with Libyan institutions.
The European Union and Libya have reinforced their partnership, according to Libya Review on 11 June, against migrant smuggling networks, reflecting Europe’s continued priority of preventing irregular migration routes across the Central Mediterranean while supporting Libyan security structures. The North African country has effectively become an external frontier of European migration policy, making stability in Libya a direct strategic concern for European capitals.
However, over the last several years, and particularly following the deterioration of Russia’s strategic position in Syria, Moscow has increasingly viewed Libya as a crucial platform.
Russia’s strategy has relied heavily on its relationship with eastern Libyan military leader Khalifa Haftar and the forces under his command. Eastern Libya is becoming a key logistical hub for Russia’s Africa Corps, allowing Moscow to transfer personnel, equipment and military supplies across the Sahel and maintain influence after the reduction of its Syrian footprint. Russia’s growing presence, according to ISPI, in eastern Libya has transformed the country into a strategic element of Moscow’s wider Mediterranean posture, creating new concerns for European security and energy interests.
The competition for influence is not limited to Europe and Russia. Turkey remains a decisive actor in western Libya through its security agreements and military presence, while regional powers such as Egypt and the United Arab Emirates continue to maintain strong political and military relationships with eastern Libyan authorities. Libya has increasingly become an arena where global and regional powers seek strategic leverage rather than merely a country undergoing post-conflict reconstruction.
While the European Union seeks cooperation with Libya on migration, maritime security and institutional development, Russia offers military partnerships and strategic support to actors in the east, allowing it to establish a long-term presence close to NATO’s southern flank.
The central challenge for Europe is therefore not simply to increase cooperation with Libya, but to ensure that its engagement is sufficiently comprehensive to compete with actors offering military, political and economic alternatives. Libya’s future will likely be shaped by a continuing geopolitical contest in which European interests intersect with those of Russia, Turkey and other powers seeking influence along the southern shores of the Mediterranean.
Libya Observer, Libya Review, ISPI, Maghrebi.org
Want to chase the pulse of North Africa?
Subscribe to receive our FREE weekly PDF magazine
