Algeria and Mali’s rapprochement: symptom of a falling junta?
According to Courrier International and Afrik.com, in the face of the Al Qaeda-affiliated terrorist group (JNIM) and the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), Bamako resorted to reconciling with Algiers to enhance its security agreements.
The last few months have seen violent combat erupt in Mali between terrorist organisations and the military junta led by Assimi Goita.
As a result, the Malian military government has lost territory and men in the North, leading to a need for diplomatic and military support from neighbours and a re-establishment of diplomatic relations between Bamako and Algiers on July 11th.
In February, Bamako denounced the rumours of diplomatic rapprochement as fake news. However, the escalation of the conflict in the north of the country, particularly the recent events in Anefis, near the Kidal region, has shown a clear struggle by the military junta.
The April 25th attacks led the FLA to recapture Kidal, shifting the rhythm and stakes of the civil war.
Simultaneous attacks in Gao, Anefis, Sevare and Keniobara in the south of the country since July 4th have only worsened the fighting conditions for the military junta, as well as their ally on the ground, Africa Corps, the successor of the Russian Wagner Group.
The attacks on Anefis represented a decisive moment for the terrorist organisations; the military base located in the locality posed a threat to the factions located in Kidal.
The military junta announced it had regained some territory around Anefis; while the FLA has admitted to losing some kilometres, they claim it was a tactical withdrawal.
With a border of approximately 1400 kilometres, including significant portions detained or controlled by terrorist groups, this desert region proves to be difficult to control without diplomatic exchanges.
Mali is part of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) and its regional allies, Burkina Faso and Niger, have already restored diplomatic relations with Algiers for economic reasons. This discrepancy is difficult to sustain while the military needs any support.
Algiers’ reestablishment of diplomatic relations with Mali was also beneficial for its international standing, as Morocco increasingly develops links with Sahel countries.
Following the growing international recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara, Algeria’s position in the region has weakened, raising questions about how these evolving regional relationships will develop.
Courrier International, Afrik.com, Maghrebi.org
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