Nathan Marchuk: Libya’s energy supply proves to be a double-edged sword 

High temperatures and an even higher demand of energy posed major challenges to Libya’s energy sector in July. August represents a potentially pivotal month for the country due to a recent drone attack on the Zawiya oil complex that led to the destruction of a gasoline reservoir and shows the start of a pattern of strikes that are detrimentally costly for Libya’s GDP. The most recent attack led to a deficit of 4.5 million litres of gasoline, and is the third strike on Libya’s largest refinery in recent weeks. The impact of hiccups and damage in the sector continue to be felt by Libyan’s showing just how tightly connected a stable energy sector is to maintaining a stable country, yet rich resource supplies have not yet translated into a rich public access of such. 

Libya possesses Africa’s largest proven oil reserves yet investment and stability in the sector remain difficult to foster due to continued attacks and the broader instability Libya has long faced. The united eastern and western governments are reminders of fragmentation and a need for action, with recent protests occurring due to a lack of usable public services in which the government was not only questioned but encouraged to be revamped and Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibah was called to resign. 

Crude oil remains a key resource for the successes of the country and as of reports conducted by the U.S Energy Information Administration in 2024, Libya holds 3% of the world’s proven oil resources and more than 40% of Africa’s reserve. The report also stated that the instability that haunts the country began in 2011 due to Libya’s civil war, and the continued presence of militias which caused mass disruptions from 2014 to 2020 and similar trends are currently seen. Libya’s  reliance on its natural gas supply only seems natural due to abundant supplies, however its scale of importance is where the current clashing’s effects can truly be seen, more than 95% of Libya’s total government revenue comes from the resource and roughly 93% of the country’s total exports. 

The issue in Libya does not stem from limited supply but instead limited public access, in a country where many individuals are facing economic challenges

Libya’s National Oil Corporation made a statement on August 10th, warning that continued drone attacks could lead to a forced shutdown of the Zawiya refinery that is responsible for the production of 120,000 barrels per day with connection to the 300,000 barrels per day Sharara oilfield. No casualties were reported but operations have not been steady at the plant since militia clashing broke out earlier this month. Libya’s electricity also spoke out on the drone attacks, adding that two drones hit the Zawiya power plant on August 11th, with another fuel tank hit however damage was not caused. 

Currently Libya is seeking a figure of 2 million barrels per day, yet the country has yet to reach the figure of 1.6 million BPD that it once boasted prior to reconstruction efforts. The country has spent several years rebuilding output after disruptions due to political disputes, force majeure declarations, and port closures. Cost continues to be sunk into growing the supply of operations yet the predictable violence continues to impede any meaningful progress while making investors weary. In 2025 peace began to arise between the rival militias near the Zawiya refinery, but cracks in security were seen through the direct prediction of the newly current events. Experts advised that this peace was most likely temporary and the possibility of renewed threats remains as long as the power supply remains unreliable and the country fails to establish a stable governance over its deeply important energy infrastructure. Political analyst and journalist Ayoub al-Awjali stated that “the cycle of clashes has become predictable.”

Despite the threats that clashes pose to the sector, 2026 has proven to be a valuable year for investment in the sector with international energy firms renewing interest in Libya, alongside new exploration agreements and returning activity from foreign operators such as China illustrating an upward trend in confidence and long term potential. The Government of National Unity has been taking steps towards holding perpetrators accountable with Prime Minister Dbeibah describing the attack as a threat to citizens, workers and vital infrastructure, adding that the perpetrators will be pursued. Accountability matters especially in terms of dismantling threats, however the conditions leading to vulnerable facilities are not yet acknowledged. Security arrangements must be capable of protecting the pivotal infrastructure in a proactive manner, this has not been seen as response comes following disruptions. 

Notably, the consequences of an energy sector unable to meet the needs of its citizens were seen in late July with an originally peaceful protest leading to the escalations such as the burning of tyres and debris all the while accountability was demanded. The issue in Libya does not stem from limited supply but instead limited public access, in a country where many individuals are facing economic challenges due to mass unemployment especially in the younger age demographic, opportunity is needed and changes are required. 

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Libya’s energy sector needs proactive defense, and the most sustainable manner for change is a governmental reform. Military control and leverage is needed in the west as a way to pivot from militias having supplied power that feeds the cycle of clashing. The armed groups of Libya often operate like sovereign actors without the obligations that sovereignty carries, placing their goals above those of the state. The future of the country’s electrical grid depends on the ability to implement necessary expansions and reform the flow of cash following oil based transactions. Currently Libya’s National Oil Corporation sells the country’s crude oil and gas on international markets and deposits the proceeds into Tripoli’s Central Bank of Libya (CBL). The CBL then underwrites public-sector salaries, subsidies and regional transfers across the nation. This system that aims to supply oil wealth to all Libyans falls short due to the centralization of oil income under competing claims over ownership.

Oil and gas specifically falls victim to armed groups who are able to gain leverage over the split governance of Libya due to its greatly important role in the country’s ability to generate wealth. Herein lies the largest issue the sector faces, clashing impedes production and supplies leverage to armed groups to receive funds in a ransom like manner, production drops meaning a less stable environment and the risk of power cuts increases as generation falls which has led to protests. The oil that serves as the blood of Libya’s economy has become so pivotal to the country that power is determined by control of such, and crackdowns on illegal activity surrounding sites and power lines will be the first step towards ensuring a stable sector no matter the state of stability the government is facing. 

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Maghrebi.org. Nathan Marchuk is a multimedia journalist, who studies at Mount Royal University in Canada. His work with Maghrebi.org. focuses on Libyan news and commonly covers stories surrounding reconstruction efforts and the countries energy sector. 

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