Dalia Al-Aqidi: Middle East crisis dwarfed by US domestic woes
While global attention remains riveted on the ongoing Middle East conflict, particularly the escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, another significant event looms large on the horizon — the upcoming US presidential election.
The Nov. 5 election is anticipated to carry substantial weight in shaping not only the future of US foreign policy, but also the geopolitical dynamics of the Middle East. The stakes are high, as the outcome may shift the course of American involvement and influence in the region, reshaping alliances and power balances.
However, within the US, the importance of foreign policy appears somewhat diminished in the eyes of many voters. Unlike previous eras, which were marked by direct military involvement in large-scale wars such as those in Afghanistan and Iraq, the US is not currently directly embroiled in a widely publicized armed conflict overseas.
As a result, voters’ priorities have shifted inward, focusing more on domestic issues. The absence of American boots on the ground in large numbers abroad means that foreign policy does not weigh as heavily on the minds of the electorate, particularly as there is no immediate sense of military sacrifice or national threat.
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This inward focus raises an interesting paradox: while decisions made at the ballot box may have far-reaching consequences for international relations, particularly in volatile regions like the Middle East, they are often driven more by US voters’ concerns about the economy, healthcare and other domestic matters. Despite their complexity and importance, foreign affairs remain a secondary issue for many American voters, who are more concerned with the immediate, day-to-day challenges they face at home. Though profound globally, US foreign policy’s impact might be relegated to the background as voters cast their ballots, broadly prioritizing what directly affects their own lives.
Arab American voters, historically reliable party supporters, have shown growing signs of disillusionment, signaling a shift that could erode Democratic support
Several key factors contribute to why global events, particularly those in the Middle East, wield limited influence over the US presidential election. First and foremost is the distinct set of priorities held by American voters. Domestic issues consistently overshadow international concerns. Another significant reason is the inherent complexity of foreign policy. International relations involve a web of diplomacy, military strategy, economic sanctions and cultural considerations, which makes foreign policy challenging to distill into clear, digestible talking points during a campaign.
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Politicians frequently find it difficult to frame these issues in a way that resonates with voters, who may not fully grasp the nuances or the broader implications of international events. As a result, candidates often sidestep deep discussions of foreign policy, preferring to focus on more tangible domestic issues that are easier to communicate and debate.
Lastly, there is the matter of long-standing bipartisan support for Israel, which further diminishes the likelihood that recent global events will significantly sway voter opinions. Both Republicans and Democrats, despite their many differences, have historically maintained strong backing for Israel, making the conflict there less of a divisive issue in American politics. This enduring consensus means that, while international developments involving Israel may be deeply significant on the world stage, they rarely serve as a point of contention or a substantial influence on the electorate.
There is, however, a potential challenge facing the Democratic Party in this election, one that could shake its voter base in unexpected ways. Arab American voters, historically reliable party supporters, have shown growing signs of disillusionment, signaling a shift that could erode Democratic support. Simultaneously, within the Jewish community — long considered a steadfast Democrat stronghold — concerns are rising over the party’s approach to foreign policy, particularly about Israel. Although distinct in their priorities, both groups share a growing sense of dissatisfaction that could prove problematic for Democrats as they head into a crucial election.
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For Arab Americans, the Biden administration’s policies on Middle East conflicts, particularly regarding the Palestinians, have fallen short of their expectations. While this demographic may not be large enough to alter the national outcome drastically, its concentrated presence in key battleground states makes Arab Americans’ discontent significant. Many of them feel that the current administration’s efforts are insufficient and this perceived neglect could cost the party votes in areas where every ballot counts.
At the same time, Jewish voters are voicing their own frustrations, particularly regarding Washington’s response to Israel’s ongoing conflict with Hamas. Many in the Jewish community believe that the administration should take a firmer stance to secure the release of hostages held in Gaza and work more decisively to end the conflict in Israel’s favor. This sense of dissatisfaction threatens to undermine the party’s long-held support within the Jewish electorate.
Recent polls show that Kamala Harris is struggling to maintain the support that helped President Joe Biden secure Michigan in 2020. The potential loss of this key state underscores how vital these shifting dynamics could be to the overall electoral map.
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Several recent polls make one thing clear: for the average American voter, the economy and the rising cost of living remain the top priorities. These bread-and-butter issues — jobs, inflation, healthcare costs — are the concerns that resonate most with everyday people and the challenges they experience firsthand.
Kitchen table conversations across the nation are not about global conflicts or diplomatic maneuvering, but about the price of groceries, the cost of gas and how to make ends meet. This reality speaks volumes about the mindset of the American electorate.
Foreign policy, meanwhile, consistently ranks at the bottom of voters’ concerns. No matter how consequential international events may be, most Americans feel they are distant and abstract compared to the tangible issues they confront daily.
Therefore, politicians who hope to capture the attention and support of the electorate must address these day-to-day concerns, for it is here — in the practical, lived experiences of the American people — that elections are won or lost.
Dalia Al-Aqidi is executive director at the American Center for Counter Extremism.
