Eyes on Libya as Russia allegedly evacuating Syrian naval base
The remaining Russian forces in Syria are allegedly evacuating, in what could be a major strategic loss for the geopolitical giant if it does not find another Mediterranean naval base.
According the Lebanese LBCI channel, via Al-Monitor, on December 16th, most Russian warships had left the Tartous naval port in western Syria, with the port’s administration telling reporters that Russian vessels had sailed into Syrian territorial waters.
With Tartous being the last Russian base in the Mediterranean, the question remains whether Moscow will attempt to establish a port elsewhere, with many suggesting Libya is on the Kremlin’s radar.
According to MiddleEastMonitor, Russian presence in Libya began in 2018, with the involvement of the government-owned PMC, the Wagner Group, in the country’s civil war.
READ: UN proposes unifying election plan for bitterly divided Libya
Moscow still backs the Bengazi-based administration of Khalifa Haftar, that rivals the UN-recognised Tripoli government, currently holding four airbases in the North African country.
While Libya lacks the facilities to house a major naval fleet, there is a port in Tobruk, in eastern Libya, which is under control of the Bengazi establishment.
Enormous investment would be required to outfit the port for Moscow’s purposes, but its use would certainly align with Libya’s status-quo of being a springboard for Russian military influence.
However, the risks are also great, as with Syria, a collapse of the Bengazi government would likely lead to a complete Russian exodus, forcing them to leave any major investments behind.
READ: Libya: Farmer’s radical experiment with top dates pays off
Another impediment to a base, is the international support for unifying Libya, after over a decade of bitter civil war.
The UN recently announced a new committee tasked with resolving legal disagreements between the two rival administrations which had cancelled unifying elections in 2021.
Any Russian naval base would likely put Moscow’s interests at odds with unification, further entrenching the sides and frustrating the resolution process.
Al-Monitor and MiddleEastMonitor
