US Africa Command confronts Libya crisis

US Africa Command is increasing its involvement in Libya due to Russian involvement in the country. According to MEMO, US Africa Command has been particularly focused following an attack on Tripoli in 2019 launched by the House of Representatives-affiliated leadership.

Libya is a key country of geopolitical significance. With interests from Russia, Turkey, the US and Europe, the country has remained in turmoil since the ousting of Gaddafi in 2011. Since 2021, the country has been split into two separate governments: the eastern Government of National Stability in Benghazi, and the western Government of National Unity in Tripoli, which is backed by the UN.

This has left US Africa Command in a very challenging position. They have a clear aim to remove Russian influence in Libya and see a solution in the military unification of Libya’s divided forces. Yet this cannot be resolved without addressing the underlying political disputes.

Russian presence within Libya is a serious threat for the US  Russia has already been a key player in African countries in the past, seen in the backing of Assad’s regime in Syria, but Libya is key in the geopolitical context of the Mediterranean.

Consequently, the country becomes valuable to numerous nations and raises concerns for European states, such as Italy, which perceives Russian control or support of Libya as directly posing threats to Mediterranean countries. Should Russia establish strong influence in Libya, it could then supply arms, create military bases, and solidify its presence, thereby presenting a threat to NATO’s southern flank.

Russia has also been able to apply its power in the country and region with plausible deniability. The Wagner Group has been key to this. Wagner arrived on the frontlines a few months after the Tripoli attack, providing tactical assistance and Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance (ISR) for artillery and aerial strikes. Russia can then use this mercenary group to build their bridges in the area and influence what takes place within the country, as they are technically not directly tied to the group.

While Turkish forces support the Tripoli government and aren’t seen as threatening to U.S. interests as Russia’s, their presence still complicates US Africa Command’s efforts to remove all foreign influences from Libyan soil.

Eastern Libyan forces under Haftar maintain rigid positions regarding military unification, insisting any unified structure must recognise Haftar’s supreme command, viewing compromise as threatening their consolidated power structure and external backing.

Conversely, western Libyan power centres, particularly Tripoli-based militias and political factions, categorically reject eastern-style military hierarchy, fearing it would dismantle their autonomy and political influence.

The U.S. needs to help unify the Libyan army, as it is the most direct way to halt the influence of outside countries like Russia in the region. US Africa Command will face a tough challenge with Haftar’s command of the majority of the country, which looks likely to wield influence in eastern Libya.

Libya remains a serious balancing act which the U.S. and Europe must navigate to gain influence in order to counter the interests of Russia. With Trump’s administration adding further uncertainty to American strategy, US Africa Command’s efforts to unify Libya’s military may face even more complex challenges ahead.

MEMO, UK Parliament