Martin Jay: Le Pen’s exclusion from next election may prove disastrous

It’s been called Marine Le Pen’s ‘Trump’ moment but the court case which has condemned the far-right leader, excluding her from running for President in the republic’s next elections in 2027, might turn out to be the EU’s greatest existential error in its entire history. Nothing compares to it when we calibrate it against other anti-democratic stunts like getting France and Ireland to hold referendums for the second time as the first time round didn’t get the desired result, or even more recently cancelling Romania’s presidential elections when it transpired that an anti-establishment candidate was going to win at the ballot.

The Le Pen stunt is almost certainly going to backfire and produce an outcome which was not at all what was intended for both by the elite in Paris and top officials in Brussels. Le Pen is going to gain even more supporters bringing the political establishment to its knees when the Trumpian momentum in the U.S. which led to the Donald winning convincingly repeats itself in France.

The case against her is a farce on many levels, but largely because of the hypocrisy of the EU. The European Parliament is a concentrated mass of corrupt MEPs who operate outside of the rules and in many cases abuse the expense system. However, the over ruling anti-fraud authority in Brussels called OLAF historically has a habit of investigating only far-right MEPs for expense irregularities but spectacularly fails to extend its probe into those who represent the establishment. Le Pen’s father fell victim to the same stunt and so history is repeating itself.

The ruling almost certainly ends her bid to replace Emmanuel Macron as France’s president at the 2027 election where she may well have been the victor given how close she came in the past presidential elections.

According to report, the judge said Le Pen was “at the heart” of a scheme to embezzle EU funds to pay party staff.

She’s likely to appeal the sentence, meaning the four-year jail term and fine will be put on hold, but the ban has been put into place immediately and it obviously raises a number of questions as to whether there is time for her to win an appeal and run for president.

“The ruling is a massive own goal for Europe’s ruling elite as it will certainly boost Le Pen’s popularity even further which will present the establishment with more problems to resolve if they are to block her taking the political demographic.”

However, she may simply profit from the decision to promote herself even further politically, leading probably to civil strife in France. The ruling is a massive own goal for Europe’s ruling elite as it will certainly boost Le Pen’s popularity even further which will present the establishment with more problems to resolve if they are to block her taking the political demographic.

Almost immediately after the sentence was announced, a number of populist leaders in Europe saw through it and gave her their full support, notably Hungary and Italy.

Matteo Salvini, Italy’s Deputy PM, has said the decision was a “declaration of war by Brussels” and “those who fear the judgement of the voters often find reassurance in the judgement of the courts”.

“In Paris, they condemned Marine Le Pen and would like to exclude her from political life. A bad film that we are also seeing in other countries such as Romania” he added.

And the deputy Italian PM didn’t pull any punches against those who he believed were behind the ruse both in Paris and in Brussels.

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“The one against @MLP_officiel is a declaration of war by Brussels, at a time when the warlike impulses of von der Leyen and Macron are frightening”. Brussels once again shoots itself in the foot and advances as a totalitarian superpower determined to stay in power even at the expense of destroying itself and EU member states economy. Le Pen was angry on the day of the hearing and stormed out of court before the judge finished reading out the sentence but will be happier to see the reaction of French people when they trump the ruling.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Maghrebi.org. The author is an award winning journalist based in Morocco, working for a number of international titles while also the editor in chief of both Maghrebi.org and Levantis.me. He can be followed on twitter at @MartinRJay. This article was originally published by Strategic Culture Foundation.

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