Kashmir dogfight grounds France’s $8 billion Rafale export dreams

The French Rafale jet has taken another devastating blow as Indonesia reviews its $8.1 billion order following an incident in Kashmir that saw Pakistan shoot down an Indian Rafale jet.

The review comes as the latest blow to France’s flagship fighter program, following Morocco’s withdrawal from Rafale negotiations in December and raising fundamental questions about modern air combat.

“If true, this intercept was technically impressive. It was a technical surprise that the Pakistani Air Force had the capability for this ‘kill chain,'” Dr Peter Layton, Associate Fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Maghrebi in an exclusive interview.

The Indian aircraft was shot down while in Indian airspace, around 90km from the border. “This means that beyond visual range, radar-guided, air-to-air missiles were used,” Layton explained.

This latest incident may shine a new light on why Morocco pulled out of negotiations with France for the jets earlier in the year. It was originally reported that other countries were focusing on Morocco intensely, yet with the current situation in Kashmir, many analysts will see Morocco’s decision as a potential disbelief in the jets themselves.

Currently, the lack of faith has intensified within the French jet industry as Indonesia is reviewing its $8.1 billion order. This represents a significant blow not only for this particular sale but also for France’s broader export strategy.

With Morocco withdrawing and the potential for Indonesia to do the same, other prospective buyers such as the UAE or Egypt will be observing from the sidelines to witness how this situation evolves.

Speaking in an exclusive interview with Maghrebi, Richard Aboulafia, Managing Director of AeroDynamic Advisory, explained, “Rafale customer militaries will likely wait for answers to all these big questions.”

Aboulafia highlighted the critical unknowns: whether the aircraft were destroyed in beyond-visual-range combat or dogfights, what their mission parameters were, and whether they had adequate escorts.

‘If genuinely BVR, then there may be implications for technology and equipment, and for the Rafale’s image on the market,’ he noted.

The Kashmir incident has fundamentally shifted what air forces need to succeed in modern combat. As Dr. Layton explained, “the incident highlights that air defence today is more than just fighter jets. A system of systems approach is needed.”

Pakistan’s success came not from superior aircraft, but from networking their Chinese J-10C fighters with Swedish Saab 2000 Erieye AWACS through real-time data links. This allowed them to fire beyond visual range missiles without even turning on their radar, keeping the Rafale unaware of the threat until it was too late.

Yet this networking approach presents a major challenge for traditional arms exporters like France. “Connecting airborne early warning and control aircraft, fighters and long-range air-to-air missiles is technically difficult, especially if they have been purchased from different nations,” Layton noted.

For France, this represents a strategic problem. The Rafale has been marketed as a standalone solution – a capable fighter that nations can integrate into existing air forces. But Kashmir suggests the future belongs to integrated ecosystems, where every component is designed to work seamlessly together.

This shift could benefit suppliers offering complete packages, particularly the United States with its F-35 ecosystem and China with its integrated systems approach.

European manufacturers like France may need to fundamentally rethink their export strategy, moving from selling individual platforms to offering comprehensive air defence solutions.

The arms race has fundamentally shifted, and France’s jet is at the heart of it.

Barlamane/Peter Layton/Maghrebi.org/Richard Aboulafia