Conflicting visions over future of Sudan emerge between leaders

Conflicting visions on the future of Sudan held by the nation’s new military-backed Prime Minister and the commander of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces became clear after they both addressed the nation recently, according to The National on June 26^th.

The warring factions’ contrasting perceptions of a state which has effectively been partitioned grants insight into what is driving the devastating conflict which has raged between the military and RSF since April 2023. Tens of thousands of Sudanese have been killed in the conflict, and over 13 million have been displaced. Furthermore, millions are facing acute hunger or famine.

RSF commander General Mohamed Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, and Prime Minister Kamil El-Tayeb Idris separately addressed the nation at roughly the same time in mid-June. The style and substance of their speeches were very indicative of a divided nation.

The military, led by General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, has control of the capital Khartoum alongside the northern, eastern, and central regions of Sudan.

The entirety of the western Darfur region – except for a single city controlled by the military – alongside parts of Kordofan to the south-west of the vast Afro-Arab nation are controlled by the RSF.

The military and its allies have not yet pushed to retake Darfur and Kordofan from the RSF, where the majority of its forces and allies are located.

Hemedti was once a cattle trader and Janjaweed fighter whose national prominence rose by virtue of former dictator Omar Al-Bashir’s patronage. Conversely, Idris is a former UN diplomate who was formally educated in Switzerland, Egypt, the US, and his native Sudan.

Dressed in desert camouflage whilst mounted on an all-terrain vehicle somewhere in Darfur, Hemedti proclaimed to hundreds of his fighters that the military and its supporters were nothing more than criminal gangs and thieves. He also reiterated his enduring accusation that Al-Burhan was relying on Islamists who are loyal to the toppled Al-Bashir regime to continue fighting.

He emphasised the de facto partition of the country, speaking of Darfur as if it were an independent nation rather than a core part of Sudan.

Hemedti claimed that Darfur – by far the region most afflicted by hunger and famine – would be able to achieve self-sufficiency in food after the rainy season. He added that the RSF would secure international humanitarian assistance for Darfur’s ethnically diverse population. Notably, the UN recently warned of the ever-increasing likelihood of genocide occurring in Sudan, drawing particular attention to ethnically-motivated killings by the RSF and its allies.

Hemedti sought to frame the RSF as a guardian of Sudan’s sovereignty by highlighting its role in securing the country’s northern border after fighters seized the area where the borders of Egypt, Sudan, and Libya meet.

He told his fighters that “if our control of the border triangle has not benefited our neighbours, at least it has brought them no harm,” adding that “the triangle and the desert are a bastion of corruption, smuggling, terrorism and illegal migration.”

Sudanese political analyst Osman Fadlallah stated that the speech “transcended the language of war to become presidential-like.” He added that Hemedti is “proceeding with growing confidence in presenting himself as a substitute to rule Sudan, or at least to enshrine a parallel role in areas under RSF control.”

Idris delivered his speech dressed in a dark business suit and tie whilst in a studio. His tone, seeking to paint an optimistic picture of Sudan’s future under his authority, was in sharp contrast to the belligerent and revolutionary fervour which underpinned Hemedti’s proclamations.

Idris, who was recently criticised for exclusionary speech, claimed that the government would put an end to nepotism and operate on the basis of justice, the rule of law, and transparency.

He called for top experts and professionals who would like to be part of his cabinet to send him their biographies via a social media account which he said he would soon publicise.

Idris announced that his administration would be called “the government of hope” and would seek to achieve security, prosperity, and a dignified life for all Sudanese.

Almost a month after his appointment, only two out of 22 of his cabinet positions have been filled: the interior and defence ministers, whose are traditionally selected by the military.

Mr Fadlallah warned that “the government of hope is a fragile and elitist project. “Idris seeks to formulate a new reality that’s immune to the present situation, while Dagalo wants to enshrine the outcome of the war thus far.”

Sudan, a nation of 50 million, has been mired in what is seemingly a constant stream of civil wars and economic crises since its independence from the British in 1956. Frequent military coups have exacerbated the country’s suffering, which have cyclically ushered in authoritarian regimes which were eventually deposed by uprisings, bringing a fleeting sense of hope in brief spells of democratic rule.

Th catastrophic civil war currently plaguing Sudan is essentially a continuation of that pattern. Al-Burhan and Hemedti worked together to stage a coup in 2021 which removed the transitional government that succeeded Al-Bashir’s downfall in 2019.

The coup derailed Sudan’s evolution into civilian democratic rule and brought international sanctions which ravaged the economy, just as it was on the mend. Now, after the outbreak of war between the two generals, Sudan has been identified as home to the world’s most severe humanitarian crisis.

Conflicting visions between the two generals over the role of the military and the RSF in a democratic Sudan grew worryingly confrontational in 2022 before war broke out between them in 2023.

Both the military and the RSF have been accused of committing war crimes and crimes against humanity during the conflict.

The National, Maghrebi.org