The Astakos incident and Libya’s role in the Mediterranean
In late July 2025, a Panama-flagged cargo vessel, AYA1, was detained at the port of Astakos in Greece after being intercepted by EU forces under an operation known as IRINI, which monitors violations of the UN arms embargo on Libya, according to TA NEA on August 5th. Libya is under an arms embargo due to ongoing conflict and political factionalism in the country. The ship’s official manifest listed cosmetics, cigarettes, and electronics. However, inspections by the Greek authorities reportedly revealed hundreds of military jeeps, allegedly bound for Misrata, an eastern Libyan city under General Khalifa Haftar’s control.
Despite the irregularities in the ship’s manifest, it was eventually allowed to proceed and finally arrive into Libya. Greek authorities were briefed at the highest levels, but local port officials were not instructed to intervene. The ship departed Astakos on 31 July and arrived in Libya the following day after taking a journey across Asia that crossed ports in Dubai and India before finally arriving into Europe via the Suez Canal and eventually moving across the Mediterranean into Misrata.
However, whilst the incident seems unusual, it may demonstrate a broader trend in international cargo routes. Whilst reports have not confirmed the origin of the ship have not been confirmed, it is an example of how certain geopolitical actors are exploiting weakened or unrecognised regimes in the MENA region to extend its influence.
Libya’s instability and lack of democratic accountability make it an ideal partner for some states ambitions, especially as regime changes across parts of the regime cause further instability. Whilst there is no confirmation of involvement in the ‘Astakos incident’, Russia has recently used similar tactics in the Sahel, where its mercenary forces have supported Ibahim Traore in Burkina Faso and in the process ousted French troops from the country.
The ‘Astakos incident’ is not merely an isolated breach of embargo enforcement; it is a clear indicator of evolving geopolitical strategies in the modern MENA region. Libya represents a potential foothold for external actors in the Mediterranean and one that would potentially enable states to project power across North Africa and into the Sahel. In contrast, Western responses to developments in Libya have been fragmented and inconsistent.
The EU has struggled to coordinate a unified response to developments in Libya as member states such as Greece face external pressure from Turkey and Russia. While illicit activity can move with speed and strategic clarity, international institutions appear increasingly unprepared to respond to the shifting power dynamics in the region.
The ship that quietly left a Greek port in late July may, in time, be seen as more than a smuggling operation. It may represent another shift in Libya’s political instability and a sign that the illicit actors’ ambitions in the region remain, for now, undeterred. For the EU the challenge of how to effectively coordinate a unified response to external engagement in Libya remains to be convincingly answered.
TA NEA/ Maghrebi
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