Madagascar: military leader to rule with a transition government

The Malagasy elite military group CAPSAT, who took power after the departure of president Andry Rajoelina, announced it aimed to rule alongside a civilian transition government, reported France 24 on October 15th. In spectacular developments, Madagascar’s army announced it had seized power after weeks of popular protests, forcing Rajoelina to flee the country.

The group insisted its actions were not a coup, but that it had suspended most government institutions to restore democracy. Rajoelina had himself announced he was dissolving the National Assembly in a preemptive move, but this was later declared invalid by lawmakers. The lower House of Parliament is still operating, and voted for Rajoelina’s impeachment on 14th October, confirming his fall from grace.

Rajoelina was brought to power through a coup in 2009, relying on the help of the same CAPSAT unit to oust former president Ravalomanana. The 2009 crisis bears many similarities to that of today: the regime change took place after several weeks of protests and general strikes that turned increasingly violent, leading to the death of several dozen protesters. This time, maybe in an attempt to prevent further escalation, CAPSAT took the side of the protesters, supporting their demands for change.

The protests, led by the island’s own Gen Z movement and inspired by similar movements across Africa, started in late September and originally focused on water and power outages. They quickly developed into calls for political change, denouncing widespread corruption and nepotism. Madagascar is regularly listed as one of the poorest countries in the world, with three quarters of its population living under the poverty line, despite vast natural resources.

Colonel Michael Randrianirina, leader of CAPSAT, is already the de factor ruler of the country; he appeared in a video in early October appealing to security forces to refuse orders to shoot on protesters. Aged 51, Randrianirina is not new to politics: he was governor of the Androy region at the south of the island, and was sentenced to jail in 2023 for his critical stance on the Rajoelina regime. He is expected to be sworn in shortly, and he announced his intentions to call for new elections in the next 18 to 24 months.

France 24