UN says exceeding 1.5°C climate target is “inevitable”

The United Nations has warned that the world is on track to exceed the 1.5°C limit for global warming set by the Paris Agreement. Officials say this overshoot is now “inevitable,” though they stress urgent action is still needed to limit the damage, reported Aljazeera, the UN Environmental Programme (UNEP) and other agencies on 4 November.

UNEP assessed the latest climate pledges from countries under the Paris Agreement and found that even if all pledges were all implemented, global temperatures are still projected to rise by 2.3 to 2.5°C this century. This is slightly lower than last year’s estimate of 2.6 to 2.8°C but still far above safe levels.

The average of global temperature rise is expected to exceed 1.5°C at least temporarily. Achieving a return to 1.5°C would need faster and larger reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, along with lowering reliance on uncertain carbon dioxide removal methods.

UN Secretary General António Guterres highlighted the urgency of the situation. He stated that “scientists tell us that a temporary overshoot above 1.5°C is now inevitable starting at the latest, in the early 2030s. And the path to a liveable future gets steeper by the day. But this is no reason to surrender.”

Inger Andersen, UNEP Executive Director, said, “Nations have had three attempts to deliver promises made under the Paris Agreement, and each time they have landed off target. While national climate plans have delivered some progress, it is nowhere near fast enough, which is why we still need unprecedented emissions cuts in an increasingly tight window, with an increasingly challenging geopolitical backdrop.”

Less than one third of countries submitted new climate pledges by September 2025. But even with these new pledges, the impact on global warming is still minimal, leaving the 1.5°C target in jeopardy.

According to The Guardian, António Guterres said, “The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5°C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5°C has devastating consequences. Some of these devastating consequences are tipping points, be it in the Amazon, be it in Greenland, or western Antarctica or the coral reefs.”

He added, “From those nationally determined contributions received until now, there is an expectation of a reduction of emissions of 10%. We would need 60% [to stay within 1.5°C]. So overshooting is now inevitable.”

Exceeding 1.5°C may worsen climate impacts, including heatwaves, rising sea levels, droughts, and extreme weather events. For vulnerable regions like North Africa and the Maghreb, the risks are particularly high, threatening agriculture, water resources, and coastal areas.

On several occasions, Guterres stressed the essential importance of Indigenous voices at COP 30 and that world leaders should also be schooled by Indigenous peoples in how to achieve a balance with nature. “It is fundamental to invest in those who are the best guardians of nature. And the best guardians of nature are precisely the Indigenous communities.”

He added, “Political leaders are often more concerned with the day to day problems of society, especially at times when the economic situation is complex and aggravated by climate change, by disasters, by catastrophes. So sometimes there is no notion of the importance of a harmonious relationship with nature and therefore it is necessary to permanently maintain a pedagogy with the political leaders, and there is no one better than the Indigenous communities to do this pedagogy.”

Antonio Guterres emphasised that though there is a possible temporary overshoot there is a potential to later return to safer levels. “It may still be possible to temporarily overshoot and then bring temperatures down in time to return to 1.5°C by the end of the century.”

While the world is likely to exceed the 1.5°C limit, the UN stressed that the focus is now on minimising the duration and intensity of overshoot, reducing the worst impacts, and investing in adaptation and mitigation strategies. Immediate and deep cuts in emissions remain critical and renewable energy expansion, methane reduction, and other proven solutions can help limit the severity of warming.

António Guterres said, “It’s a reason to step up and speed up. The 1.5°C by the end of the century remains our North Star. And the science is clear, this goal is still within reach. But only if we meaningfully increase our ambition.”

Aljazeera, UNEP, The Guardian and Maghrebi.org