Can politics resolve Sudan conflict?

The situation is developing rapidly in the Sudanese area. Over the past two weeks, the army has made significant advances at the expense of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the states of Al-Jazira and Khartoum, shifting the balance of military power.

The army, along with allied groups- among them the Sudan Shield Forces led by Abu Aqla Kiekel, the Al-Baraa bin Malik Brigades, and some Joint Darfur Force battalions, launched a large-scale and multi-pronged offensive to reclaim the strategic city of Wad Madani, the capital of Al-Jazira State. They managed to enter the city with ease, as the RSF had done about a year ago.

The entire central Khartoum Bahri area is now under the control of the armed forces, as are parts of central Khartoum. Only a few pockets remain in the RSF’s hands, but they are unlikely to hold out for long.

The same pattern was seen in all the areas recaptured by the army, including Wad Madani. The RSF retreated and withdrew before the army’s arrival. The only major battles were fought on the outskirts of the city, as army forces advanced, but once they reached the city itself, they entered swiftly and without resistance. The fact that few major battles were fought does not take anything away from the significance of the army’s victory nor the scale of the RSF’s defeat. Their retreat was not voluntary; the army’s multi-front assault and the inevitability of an impending defeat left the RSF with no choice.

We saw something in parts of Khartoum State, where the army made significant progress in Khartoum Bahri. Forces advancing from the north of the city linked up with the Signal Corps troops, who had been entrenched in their barracks along the Blue Nile since the beginning of the war. From there, they moved towards the General Command of the Armed Forces and central Khartoum. The entire central Khartoum Bahri area is now under the control of the armed forces, as are parts of central Khartoum. Only a few pockets remain in the RSF’s hands, but they are unlikely to hold out for long. However, what is behind the rapid collapse of the RSF?

The primary reason for the rapid collapse of the RSF is that it is overstretched. It did not have enough men to secure the areas it had occupied. Since the war began in April 2023, the RSF’s strategy has been based on the assumption that the army lacked mobile infantry capable of rapidly moving into urban battles using light vehicles that could maneuver around slow-moving tanks and armored vehicles. Due to this advantage, the RSF managed to seize almost all of Khartoum State (with the exception of a few military sites) and later expanded its control over Al-Jazira State. It also took over most of the Darfur region, with the exception of the city of El Fasher and parts of Kordofan State.

Since then, the army has recruited thousands of new fighters, acquired large quantities of military vehicles and equipment, and gained a significant advantage by securing modern aircraft from allied nations. The superiority of the air force appears to have played a decisive role in crippling the RSF’s capabilities and clearing the way for infantry forces to advance on multiple fronts.

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As things currently stand, the army has control of Omdurman, with the exception of the southern tip of Jebel Aulia. Similarly, in Bahri, only the East Nile area remains under RSF control. The army is expected to establish full control over central Khartoum in just a few days, leaving only the southern districts in RSF hands.

The reality on the ground suggests that the RSF cannot remain in Khartoum and Al-Jazira. Unless it deploys new reinforcements, it has no viable strategy, and that does not seem possible at this stage. As a result, the focus will likely shift to Darfur and parts of Kordofan, which aligns with earlier predictions that each side would consolidate control over particular areas, reinforcing the prospect of division, which seems likely whether or not a pro-RSF government emerges.

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Military victories do not rule out the possibility of a political settlement to end wars. Indeed, Donald Trump is back in the White House and he has made his intention to end all wars clear. He also already began, ending the war in Gaza. All parties anticipate significant US pressure to end the conflict soon, on both the warring factions and all the countries supporting and financing the war, increasing the significance of the current military advances.

Indeed, if the conflict ends soon after this shift in the balance of power, the army would be in a stronger negotiating position. Accordingly, we may soon witness the start of new rounds of negotiations, either in Jeddah or elsewhere. The war trajectory set in motion by the war will ultimately be resolved through politics.

Faisal Mohamed Saleh is Sudan’s former Minister of Information, as well as a journalist and university lecturer and instructor in the field of media studies. He is currently a director of Tiba Press center for media services, and daily columnist in Khartoum newspaper. He has collated a number of scientific papers in the areas of media, human rights, and issues of identity and cultural diversity in Sudan. In 2013, He won the American award of Peter Mclr for integrity and courage in journalism, and was awarded the champion of human rights in 2013 from the European Union mission in Sudan. If you wish to pitch an opinion piece please send your article to alisa.butterwick@maghrebi.org