Morocco is fresh meat for Daesh

Morocco, located at the crossroads of Africa, Europe, and the Arab world, plays a vital geostrategic role as a cornerstone of regional stability. However, this pivotal position also exposes Morocco to the expansionist ambitions of terrorist groups in the Sahel-Sahara region. Consequently, the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS), led by Abou Al Barra Sahraoui, along with dissident factions from the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (GSIM), Boko Haram, and Al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), now view Morocco as a significant obstacle to their ambitions.

The current chaos in the Sahel has its origins in the evolution of jihadism. In the 1990s, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) emerged in Algeria following a split from the Armed Islamic Group (GIA). Rejecting indiscriminate violence in favor of a structured, calculated expansion beyond Algeria, the GSPC laid the groundwork for transnational terror operations.

Under leaders like Abderrazak El Para (Amari Saifi, currently under house arrest in Algeria), the GSPC forged strategic alliances with key jihadist figures, including Iyad Ag Ghali. These alliances cemented the group’s role within a broader transnational network. In 2007, after pledging allegiance to Al-Qaida, the organization became AQIM and extended its influence. Mounting military pressure and shifting dynamics in jihadism led to the creation of new structures—such as the GSIM—which united various factions under Ag Ghali’s leadership, exploiting local state fragility and communal tensions in the Sahel.

The Daesh Influence and the Birth of ISGS

The emergence of Daesh in the Levant (Iraq/Syria) reshaped Sahelian jihadist organizations originally tied to Al-Qaida. Factions like Ansar Eddine, Al-Mourabitoune, and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO) experienced both ideological and strategic breaks. In 2015, a split within Al-Mourabitoune – previously part of AQIM – led to the formation of ISGS, which pledged allegiance to the Islamic State in the Levant (ISIL).

ISGS primarily operates along the Mali-Niger border and has expanded into Burkina Faso. Its most notorious act was the ambush on October 4, 2017, against a joint American-Nigerien patrol near Tongo Tongo in Niger, which resulted in the deaths of eight soldiers (four Americans and four Nigeriens). This attack demonstrated ISGS’s lethal capabilities and its potential to target international forces, underscoring its status as a major threat.

Despite heavy blows inflicted on Daesh in Syria and Iraq by the international coalition, the group has proven remarkably resilient. It has reorganized and relocated to areas more conducive to its operations in sub-Saharan Africa. According to the Global Terrorism Index 2023, Daesh is responsible for over 25% of terrorism-related deaths on the continent, with more than 6,800 fatalities in the Sahel in 2023 alone – figures significantly contributed to by ISGS and its affiliates.

The economic impact is equally staggering. The United Nations estimates that terrorism caused total losses of 119 billion $ between 2007 and 2016, while annual security expenditures in Africa approach 84 billion $. Additionally, population displacement has resulted in approximately $312.7 billion in economic losses. These numbers reveal that terrorism not only causes human suffering but also destabilizes economies, disrupts trade, and perpetuates poverty and insecurity.

Drivers of Instability in the Sahel

Several structural factors drive the current threat landscape. Many Sahelian states suffer from weak governance, creating exploitable gaps. Porous borders facilitate the illicit exchange of drugs, weapons, and human trafficking while allowing fighters to cross freely between countries. Foreign interference—often driven by conflicting strategic interests—further exacerbates regional instability.

A persistent dispute between Morocco and Algeria also plays a significant role. Algeria’s unwavering support for the Polisario separatist movement intensifies regional rivalries. For example, in 2016, the Polisario’s blockade of the Guerguerate border crossing between Morocco and Mauritania disrupted trade flows and hindered cooperation, creating gray zones that terrorist networks quickly exploited.

Additionally, poorly controlled Tindouf camps in southwestern Algeria serve as conduits for arms, contraband, and fighters entering Sahelian conflict zones. The evolution of ISGS—founded by Abou Adnan Walid Sahraoui, a former Polisario and MUJAO member—illustrates how existing separatist networks have been leveraged to establish a foothold. The collapse of Gaddafi’s regime in Libya and the subsequent spread of millions of light weapons have further escalated arms trafficking. A 2022 United Nations report documented confirmed cases of arms moving through Tindouf, directly fueling terrorist activities in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. These developments suggest that some Polisario factions, despite their public rhetoric, maintain opportunistic links with jihadist groups to expand their influence in an increasingly fragmented region.

Morocco as a Strategic Bulwark and Global Security Partner

Morocco is not only a target but also a proactive defender of regional security. Fully aware of the modern security landscape, Morocco has developed a robust defense doctrine focused on enhancing national security and optimizing strategic alliances. Its evolving security architecture integrates advanced surveillance, effective inter-agency coordination, and comprehensive counter-hybrid threat mechanisms.

The modernization of Morocco’s security forces—through the integration of state-of-the-art technology, advanced intelligence systems, and cyber-surveillance—enables the Kingdom to anticipate and neutralize emerging risks. International partnerships with the United States, European Union, and various African nations further bolster Morocco’s role as a global security provider.

Moreover, Morocco has strengthened its position by deploying high-performance operational intelligence and by enhancing the capacities of Sahelian forces through specialized training programs conducted under the auspices of the United Nations Counter-Terrorism Office in Rabat. Participation in multilateral initiatives, such as the Focus Africa Group, has also been crucial in dismantling jihadist networks and managing transnational threats.

Terrorist Ambitions in the Sahel: An Escalating Threat in Morocco

Morocco’s integrated security approach has transformed it into a resilient bastion and a model of adaptability amid evolving challenges. As a strategic partner of the United States and Europe, Morocco plays a vital role in protecting the southern flank of the Atlantic Alliance and managing strategic migration flows toward Europe. Its intelligence capabilities are underpinned by a sophisticated security infrastructure and seamless coordination among elite security services, enabling swift responses to both dormant and active terrorist cells.

Since 2002, Morocco’s security apparatus has dismantled over 200 terrorist cells, many linked to jihadist networks operating in the Sahel-Sahara, Syria, and Iraq. Through advanced intelligence gathering, technological counter-espionage, and rigorous network analysis, Morocco has positioned itself as a critical bulwark against transnational threats and the evolving nature of global terrorism. For example, intelligence services, working closely with international partners, uncovered a clandestine network led by a high-ranking Daesh official with deep penetration into Moroccan territory. The operation on February 19, 2025, exemplifies Morocco’s proactive counterterrorism strategy.

Using highly precise intelligence from the General Directorate of Territorial Surveillance (DGST), the Bureau Central of Judicial Investigations (BCIJ) executed a strategic operation that neutralized an active terrorist cell operating in nine Moroccan cities. Twelve suspects were arrested, and a substantial cache of explosives, sophisticated weapons, and sensitive documents was seized from a covert logistics hub in Errachidia—a critical border area with Algeria. Among the most notable discoveries was a hidden arsenal that underscores the scale of the conspiracy and the transnational reach of jihadist networks. Further diligent investigations revealed that this terrorist network is led by the head of Daesh’s external operations in the Sahel, who orchestrates the entire operation as the instigator of the plot, supported by a cadre of coordinators, executors, and logistical facilitators. Converging evidence also revealed a clandestine logistical node—a strategic installation that channels arms from the Sahel into Morocco. This facility reportedly leverages corridors connecting Gao and Kidal in Mali, through Arlit in Niger, to Tamanrasset in Algeria. The activation of these routes underscores the sophistication of jihadist supply chains and the urgent need to enhance surveillance along critical borders and trafficking corridors.

Structural Drivers of Instability and the Role of External Actors

Chronic instability in the Sahel stems from weak state institutions, porous borders, ongoing geopolitical upheavals, and interference from non-state actors. These factors create fertile ground for extremist networks and separatist movements that exploit governance gaps. For example, Algeria’s support for the Polisario separatist movement indirectly fuels regional instability.

Terrorist groups are targeting Morocco not only for regional disruption but also as part of a broader strategy to destabilize Europe’s defenses. As the final bulwark before Europe’s northwest, Morocco is vital in neutralizing cross-border jihadist flows. Its collaboration with Spanish, American, and French security services has led to the dismantling of several terrorist cells. The latest joint operation between Moroccan and Spanish agencies in November 2024, conducted in Tetouan and Madrid, exemplifies exceptional security cooperation. Strategically, Morocco is a key partner of the United States under the Trans-Saharan Counterterrorism Program (TSCTP). The information exchange between DGST and the CIA has been crucial in preempting threats beyond Morocco’s borders, as demonstrated by the operation against the Daesh cell led by Cole Bridges Gonzalez.

Morocco recognizes that the fight against extremism cannot rely solely on security measures. Its strategy combines prevention with socio-economic development. The Mohammed VI Foundation for African Ulema plays a central role in promoting a tolerant form of Islam and training imams, while various economic initiatives bolster community resilience against extremist narratives. However, the persistence of terrorist strongholds in the Sahel and the involvement of external actors—such as the Wagner Group—continue to complicate regional stabilization efforts. The failure of conventional military interventions has allowed jihadist groups to entrench, underscoring the need for heightened vigilance and a shift in counterterrorism strategies.

“The Sahel is no longer a remote testing ground for terror—it is emerging as the starting point for a global destabilization”

Morocco’s security approach extends beyond border protection to preemptively contain terrorist threats. Sustained cooperation with Sahelian nations and Western agencies has disrupted multiple arms supply chains and funding networks that support jihadist operations between Mali, Niger, and Libya. Enhanced border controls, aerial surveillance, and robust intelligence sharing have significantly reduced the transit of foreign fighters from the Maghreb to the Sahel. Consequently, Morocco’s influence also spans political and diplomatic arenas. By advocating a holistic approach that fuses security with development, Morocco is reshaping long-term strategies to counter Sahelian instability. Economic cooperation and humanitarian aid projects in vulnerable regions have diminished the appeal of jihadist groups among marginalized communities.

Furthermore, by targeting the financial structures underpinning terrorist organizations, Morocco has played a pivotal role in dismantling clandestine funding networks that span the southern provinces of Morocco, Mauritania, and Mali. Improved financial traceability and stronger collaboration with regional banking institutions have led to the identification and blocking of key terrorism financing sources, thereby curtailing the operational capacity of extremist groups.

Toward a Redefinition of Security Strategies

The Sahel, one of the most persistent terrorist hubs, reveals the limitations of purely military solutions. Conventional interventions—such as those under French Operation Barkhane—have often fallen short, allowing terrorist groups to exploit fragmented states and weak local institutions. The presence of foreign mercenaries, notably those linked to the Wagner Group, further complicates the security landscape. In response, Morocco has developed a hybrid strategy that blends high-precision intelligence, proactive diplomacy, and economic development initiatives. The modernization of surveillance systems, alongside efforts to promote a moderate Islam through institutions like the Mohammed VI Foundation for African Ulema, exemplifies this multidimensional approach.

Looking ahead, asymmetric threats will demand continuous innovation and heightened vigilance. Expanding high-level intelligence-sharing networks—similar to the Five Eyes framework—to include Morocco is a specific policy recommendation that could significantly enhance its cybersecurity and electromagnetic intelligence capabilities. Combating terrorism requires not only force but also a combination of disruptive technologies, strategic foresight, and robust multilateral cooperation.

Hence,Morocco sits at the epicenter of a complex security landscape. It balances its role as a regional stabilizer with the expansionist ambitions of terrorist groups like Daesh and ISGS, as well as the destabilizing influence of separatist factions linked to the Polisario. Its strategic location and commitment to advanced operational intelligence position it on the front lines of the fight against transnational terrorism. Through a robust defense doctrine, ongoing modernization of its security forces, and close international cooperation, Morocco has become a true global security provider. Ironically, this very effectiveness in intelligence and border security makes it a prime target for those seeking to destabilize the regional balance.

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In today’s fragile geopolitical context, Daesh is exploiting Sahelian weaknesses and positioning itself to extend its operations beyond the region. Its strategic relocation is not merely about local terror—it is laying the groundwork for a global threat. Without immediate, coordinated intervention, jihadist networks could spread from this unstable hub throughout Africa, eventually endangering Europe and other critical regions.

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Therefore, an analysis of the current situation suggests that the international community must act decisively. Expanding intelligence-sharing networks—modeled after the Five Eyes framework—to include Morocco could significantly enhance the seamless exchange of threat data across borders. Simultaneously, strengthening joint surveillance operations along key corridors in the Sahel is critical for disrupting arms trafficking and the movement of insurgents. Furthermore, intensified diplomatic efforts to support fragile states in the region would likely bolster their governance capabilities and improve resilience against extremist influences. Collectively, these measures are viewed as essential components in curbing the expanding threat and ensuring global security. Failure to implement these measures will not only embolden Daesh but may also trigger a security crisis of unprecedented scale. The Sahel is no longer a remote testing ground for terror—it is emerging as the starting point for a global destabilization.

The time to act is now.

The views expressed in this article belong to the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Maghrebi.org. Cherkaoui Roudani is a distinguished university professor specialising in Diplomacy, International Relations, Security, and Crisis Management. He is recognised for his expertise in geostrategic issues and security. A former Member of Parliament in the Kingdom of Morocco, he also served as a political member of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Francophonie (APF). His contributions to global dialogue were honoured with the prestigious “Emerging Leaders” award from the Aspen Institute. A sought-after consultant for national and international television channels, Mr. Roudani Cherkaoui is a prominent international speaker on security, defence, and international relations. His thought leadership extends to numerous analyses published in leading national and international newspapers and magazines.

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