Khalil Charles: ‘War government’ talks in Sudan amidst SAF enclosing Khartoum

With the Sudanese military closing in on the remnants of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) still in the capital Khartoum, the talk in Port Sudan is that Sudan’s Sovereignty Council Chairman, Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, is about to install a caretaker “war government”. A political entity is needed to navigate the state through the crises brought on by the two-year-old civil war between the army and the RSF militia. The current political reality, according to commentators, must now address a different task from the one faced by the transitional government formed on the removal of Sudan’s former leader, Omer Ahmed Al-Bashir, who was ousted in April 2019.

The primary task would be to support the military in its mission to “liberate Sudan” completely. Of the key amendments proposed in the new constitution, the most striking introduces a new transitional period that cannot exceed 39 months unless a national consensus is reached or a general election is held.

The amendments also removed any references to the RSF or the Forces of Freedom and Change (FFC), both of which were key components under the post-Al-Bashir constitution. Other changes include barring individuals holding foreign passports from government positions and placing foreign policy under the direct supervision of the sovereignty council. In addition, the clause that designated the legislative council as the authority for legislation and oversight has been taken out. Instead, the new constitution establishes a “transitional legislative authority” composed of the sovereignty council and the cabinet. The authority grants it legislative and oversight powers over the executive apparatus until a legislative council or parliament is elected or established.

However, as things stand, the new constitution does not prevent the consensus to move towards a general election. Previous systems mandated the fixed transitional period that would allow the “deep state” of the Bashir regime to be dismantled before the country could go to the polls. It also challenged the power of the army to monopolise parts of the economy.

“The trend towards separating the Darfur region from Sudanese national territory is driven internally by ethnic motivations, which some argue was primarily driven by the political practices of the previous Sudanese government over the past two decades”

The amendments also changed the composition of the Transitional Sovereignty Council, from its previous provision for civilian members, to stipulating 11 members, including six appointed by the Armed Forces and three nominated by the signatories to the Juba Peace Agreement, with gender and regional quotas allowed for the remaining positions. The council will continue to be chaired by the military commander-in-chief, Al-Burhan, for the duration of the 39-month transitional period.

Meanwhile, discussions over the appointment of a prime minister have already begun. Media sources in the cabinet’s general secretariat told the Mada Masr news outlet that three candidates are being considered for the position, with former Foreign Ministry Undersecretary and Sudan’s Ambassador to Saudi Arabia Dafallah Al-Hajj Ali emerging as the frontrunner. Ali is believed to have garnered significant approval within both the sovereignty council and cabinet circles, according to the outlet. However, the source noted that the announcement of the prime minister is linked to military operations in Khartoum, with indications that the appointment could be made from within the capital.

In South Darfur’s RSF-controlled Nyala in central Sudan, the militia is reported to be in retreat. The mass exodus from Sudan’s third largest city has resulted in reports by local residents of uncontrolled, widespread looting. Reports also claim that the RSF-appointed Nyala council has been absent as former government officials impose fees and levies on already exorbitant and dwindling supplies, and armed groups extort thousands of Sudanese pounds from those travelling by road.

The army leadership has promised to begin the task to “liberate” the Darfur region which is controlled by the RSF. Based on previous experiences of war in Darfur during the rule of Omer Al-Bashir, the army is expected to forge new alliances within the Darfur tribes. Given the hostilities between RSF leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo and some other Darfur leaders from the Arab tribes, such as his uncle, Musa Hilal, observers are expecting a greater fragmentation of the Darfur tribal components between the two sides, suggesting that the scope of the armed conflict in the region is set to expand.

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The trend towards separating the Darfur region from Sudanese national territory is driven internally by ethnic motivations, which some argue was primarily driven by the political practices of the previous Sudanese government over the past two decades. Externally, Israeli support is aimed at splitting Sudan in two. According to recent reports in the Independent Arabic website, a number of Zionists are currently active in US charitable organisations working particularly with those displaced from Darfur to eastern Chad.

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It is difficult to see how the drive to forge a separate political entity will play out. However, in the event that Sudan is able to be stabilised politically and economically, particularly in the northern, central and eastern regions, while strengthening international trade, the balance of its regions’ influences may change.