Morocco and Algeria's delicate standoff

The Algeria-Morocco relations are characterised by constant tension, with dominion over Western Sahara at the core of their complex relationship. As Morocco increasingly solidifies its control in Western Sahara, Algeria has been compelled to demonstrate its military preparedness.

On the 22nd of May, Algeria’s Chief of Staff, Lieutenant General Said Chengriha, oversaw a live-fire tactical exercise near the Moroccan border in a drill dubbed “Fortress Impregnable 2025”.

“Both countries are ready for the worst-case scenario of an accidental escalation, even though they are not actively looking for a war,” explained Riccardo Fabiani, North Africa Project Director at Crisis Group, in an exclusive interview with Maghrebi.

This readiness is built on years of tensions and breakdown in bilateral relations. The two countries were engaged in war in the 1960s, and in 2021, Algeria took the unprecedented step of suspending diplomatic relations with Morocco as they became increasingly bothered by Rabat’s ties to Israel.

This has led to military exercises in the Tindouf region, signalling military readiness and regional posture as the Algerian government seeks to demonstrate power at a time when Morocco is garnering increasing support from major world powers.

This has been driven by the undercurrent of control that Morocco has established in Western Sahara, as Algeria continues to support the Polisario Front in its quest for independence in Western Sahara.

Yet this has prompted both sides to prepare for any potential escalation, although experts suggest that neither side wishes to escalate a war, and accidental escalation remains improbable as both the UN and the US play crucial roles in managing and de-escalating tensions.

In a significant diplomatic development, France has further complicated the regional dynamics by explicitly backing Morocco’s sovereignty over Western Sahara.

On April 15th, 2025, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot reaffirmed France’s support during a meeting with his Moroccan counterpart Nasser Bourita, building on a pivotal letter from French President Emmanuel Macron to King Mohammed VI in 2024.

This diplomatic endorsement comes at a critical time, potentially emboldening Morocco’s position and further straining its already fragile relationship with Algeria, which continues to support the Polisario Front’s independence movement in the region.

Such cases as the US establishing a Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding on the 22nd of January with Algeria have seen the US stabilise tensions through establishing realities with both Algeria and Morocco.

The memorandum was explained by the US embassy as a “shared vision to strengthen regional and international peace and stability through strategic dialogue.”

Fabiani explains, “There is a limited risk of accidental escalation. The role of the U.S. and the UN mission in Western Sahara will play a key role in managing these tensions and reducing this risk.”

Yet, France and Israel both have given rise to tensions with their backing to Morocco’s dominion over Western Sahara, as it increasingly seems like Morocco has gained the backing it needs to solidify its control.

The “Fortress Impregnable 2025” exercise is a calculated display of military capability and political messaging. It represents more than a simple military drill – it is a complex geopolitical signal that underscores the ongoing strategic competition between Algeria and Morocco.

As tensions continue to simmer, this military demonstration serves as a stark reminder of the intricate and volatile diplomatic landscape in North Africa. The international community remains vigilant, watching closely as these two significant regional powers navigate their complex relationship.

Maghrebi.org/Riccardo Fabiani/US Embassy Algeria