John Wight: US directs Zelensky towards dialogue with Putin

Reports that the Biden administration has urged Ukraine President Volodymer Zelensky to remain open to talks with Putin reveal nothing if not mounting disquiet in Washington over the former’s leadership — and with good reason.

Root causes

Now into its ninth month with no sign of abating anytime soon, the conflict has wrought huge misery and suffering not only in Ukraine itself, but also across the world due to the interconnectedness of the global economy and the critical function of Ukraine as an exporter of wheat to the Global South. Add to the mix a spike in energy and fuel prices given Russia’s hitherto critical function as the main source of fuel for Western Europe and what we have is a conflict that has had and continues to have a grievous impact on the lives of millions of people beyond Ukraine and Russia’s borders.

It also happens to be a conflict cynically reduced in its depiction by Western ideologues as a Manichean struggle between the absolute good represented by Zelensky and the absolute evil personified by Putin. In the process the history, complexities and geopolitics that fed into the trajectory of events leading up to the current conflict have been abstracted at the expense of a proper rendering by which an informed public in the West could grasp the role of their own governments and political classes when it comes to its root causes.

In sum, the conflict in Ukraine has pitted the collective West against Russia with the maintenance of Western hegemony and the West’s unipolar domination of the global economy and markets in mind on one side, and Moscow’s determination to give birth to the multipolar alternative demanded by Russia’s recovery from the demise of the Soviet Union and its rightful status as a superpower. Within these competing meta-narratives Zelensky is but a puppet who has had the temerity to pull on his strings too hard for comfort in Washington and not hard enough to satisfy ultra-nationalists in Kiev.

The result has been him making contradictory statements and decisions throughout his time in office and, critically, throughout the course of the conflict since it began with Russia’s invasion of the country in February of this year.

Zelensky rows back

Firstly, Zelensky was elected by a huge majority in 2019 pledging to implement the protocols of the Minsk II Agreement, including a ceasefire in the Donbass and granting of self-government to certain parts of Eastern Ukraine that would necessitate constitutional reform in Kiev. At the conclusion of the Paris Summit in December 2019, during which Zelensky met with Putin, Macron and then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Zelensky ratified his pledges when it came to the implementation of Minsk II.

What then changed to cause Zelensky to row back from the above and instead embrace a hardline stance against pro-Moscow separatists in the Donbass and Russia itself?

A key stumbling block to implementation was the insuperable disagreement between Moscow and Kiev as to the order in which each of the Minsk II protocols should be carried out. Political opposition to self government in the Donbass in Western Ukraine, driven by ultra-nationalist elements, manifested in violent protests in Kiev. This fierce opposition both in the streets and within the Ukrainian Parliament served to hamstring Zelensky, confirming that though in office he was not even back then a president in power.

Ukraine as a cat’s paw

Externally, conspicuous by its non-participation in this diplomatic process was Washington. A material actor in the Maidan Coup of February 2014, the US State Department has long followed a strategy when it comes to Ukraine of using the country as a key bulwark against Russia, effectively using the country as a cat’s paw. Here, it is no accident at all that the Western powers that have been most aggressive when it comes to Russia have been the US and the UK. This aggressive stance has likewise been reflected in the level of military support and aid provided to Ukraine throughout the conflict and up to this point the refusal to countenance any compromise with Putin when it comes to ending hostilities.

But it would appear now that Washington at least has become concerned enough over Zelensky’s leadership to not only urge him to open the door to future talks with his Russian counterpart, but to go public with this urging. The stated reason for this measure is pressure from various other countries whose own economies and peoples have been adversely impacted, with Washington claiming concerns over the withdrawal of support for Ukraine in consequence.

Zelensky, it should be borne in mind, signed a decree mandating that he would only negotiate with a Russian president other than Vladimir Putin when it comes to ending the conflict. This he did immediately after the Russian Parliament ratified the absorption of four regions of Eastern and Southern Ukraine into the Russian Federation.

Escalation vs de-escalation

The problem Zelensky has is the setting in of Ukraine fatigue across the world when it comes to continuing to provide billions of dollars in aid to the country, which to all intents is now a NATO/US dependency. Further still, the conflict on the ground has reached a stalemate as winter settles in and from Ukraine’s perspective is by now clearly unwinnable without significant escalation by the US and its allies.

That such an escalation would heighten the threat of a nuclear response by Putin — under pressure from hardliners on his own side — is clearly not lost in the White House or within the Pentagon, suggesting that dovish voices are beginning to exert more influence than hitherto in Washington when it comes to the verities of de-escalation and a diplomatic route out of hostilities.

As to Biden himself, polling suggests at time of writing that he is on course to becoming a lame duck president due to the Republicans taking control of both the House and Senate in the midterm elections. Support for the conflict in Ukraine is at best lukewarm among Republicans, given not only the huge amount of US tax dollars spent and pledged by Biden, but also due to the lingering scandal surrounding the business dealings of Hunter S. Biden in Ukraine as well as in China being elevated into a toxically divisive partisan issue.

Ukraine’s ability to wage war against Russia has always been contingent on US support and aid. President Zelensky made the mistake of losing sight of this fact and have just been remined who the boss is.