West African Plan: Niger Strike Looms
West African defence chiefs have planned for potential military intervention to reverse last week’s turbulent scenes Niger, where a military coup saw President Mohamed Bazoum ousted.
A leader of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), said on August 5, that ECOWAS countries would investigate how and when to deploy forces to attempt to reinstate Bazoum according to Reuters, August 4.
The coup was pro-Russian as Ukrainian official Mykhailo Podolyak claimed that the Kremlin was behing Niger’s shocking takeover.
It has not been made clear yet as to how big an ECOWAS force would be or what form it would take.
As Niger already struggles with a violent Islamist insurgency, military intervention among ECOWAS nations could enflame the situation. ECOWAS has given the junta until August 6 to reinstate the ousted president.
The bloc is not yet releasing details and will need a heads up from the leaders of the West African member states before intervening, but various options, military or otherwise could become available.
ECOWAS has sent troops into crisis spots before but the bloc has never in Niger due to the region being so divided.
Coup leaders in Guinea, Burkina Faso and Mali have expressed support for Niger’s junta, whilst other countries are having security challenges of their own.
Security analysts say the details of an operation may take weeks to pull together, and that an invasion would be a risk.
ECOWAS has taken a stronger stance against Niger than it did against juntas in Burkina Faso and Mali that have taken power in the last three years.
Coup leader General Abdourahamane Tiani served as battalion commander for ECOWAS peacekeepers in Ivory Coast after a ceasefire between government and rebel forces in 2003.
This option would involve a slimmer ground force that would be quicker to assemble. It would likely focus on seizing key security and administrative sites, rescuing Bazoum from house arrest and restoring his government, said Ikemesit Effiong, a senior researcher at SBM Intelligence consultancy in Nigeria. ECOWAS could seek intelligence support from U.S. and French forces inside Niger.
Peter Pham of the Atlantic Council, a US based think tank, said,”The only operationally feasible scenario I can imagine … would be in the form of more limited support for a ‘counter coup’ by Nigerien forces. He added, “I don’t see them coming in without that local element.”
One of the poorest countries of the world, sanctions on the West African country would heavily weaken its economy.
REUTERS
