Libya: Sudan’s new presence at border is a serious threat

The Italian Institute for International Affairs has issued a new report warning that Libya may well be facing higher security threats at the southern border and in northern regions due to Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) new presence there, according to Libya Review on June 29th.

On June 11th the RSF rebels, who are at war with the government backed paramilitary group the Strategic Armed Forces (SAF), announced that their fighters had seized a strategic zone at the border triangle between Sudan, Egypt and Libya.

The report from the Italian Institute for International Affairs describes the takeover as a critical development with deep consequences for Libya, primarily affecting stability in the south and at the border, but could well spill into northern regions of the nation.

The southern border of Libya is weakly monitored due to the lack of state authority in the southern region, and already is used to transport illicit goods according to the Libya Review.

Libya is also a crucial escape point for the Sudanese who are fleeing the war, and for Africans more broadly who want to migrate to Europe.

The new and increasing activity from the RSF at the border triangle could prompt a significant rise in irregular migration into and through Libya.

The risks cited by the report for Libya are destabilization in the south and of security infrastructure, which is already struggling to manage Libya’s own violent conflict for governance.

Libya has been in turmoil since a botched NATO intervention in 2011, the country now split into two vying governments, with both, as well as the UN, repeatedly failing to facilitate democratic elections.

With Libya’s governments in the east and west preoccupied with each other, the border triangle in the south of Libya is one of the least governed places in Northern Africa. The illegal smuggling of arms and fuel is rife, and the area is a hive for human trafficking, according to the Libya Review.

The Italian Institute for International Affairs report states that if the RSF can secure their position in the border triangle, these lawless routes will be militarized networks. The RSF will use the routes to fund their own operations, and build alliances and influence beyond Sudan.

The conflict in Sudan has already started spilling over into other nations in terms of refugees, so the fear of the Sudan conflict’s influence spreading further into Libya is not unfounded. 

Maghrebi reported on June 12th that according to Libyan migration authorities, roughly 20,000-25,000 Sudanese people have entered Libya via Egypt since the conflict began.

The RSF’s takeover will also threaten peacebuilding in Libya in the long-term, states the report. The RSF is a transnational actor outside of legal control, and therefore reconstruction efforts from the Libyan governments and the UN will be further challenged, especially if south Libya becomes its own conflict zone.

Libya Review/Maghrebi